GT analyse their three buyers for Saab. I analyse GT

I provided a loose Googletrans of an article appearing at earlier this evening. In that article, GT identified the three remaining bidders as Geely, Fiat, and a mysterious German bank.
Thankfully, they’ve also provided some more information to back up their thoughts.
Here is GT’s analysis, with my analysis of their analysis following:
GT on Geely
Geely has studied Saab for many years and they were early in the auction.
The Chinese have also looked at the car plant in Trollhättan. Geely is a private company which is considered to have the financial muscle needed. Geely has also engaged the services of the British merchant bank Rothschild – which includes ex-Volvo-heads PG Gyllenhammar and Hans-Olov Olsson work – to find co-financiers.
A likely partner is Sheikh Maktoum Hashar Maktoum al Maktoum of Dubai.
GM chief Fritz Henderson is afraid to sell to the Chinese because of future competition. Henderson does not want to let the Chinese get Saab dealers in the U.S.. Geely buying Saab means a CULTURAL CRASH in Trollhättan and in the best case develops Geely Saab to a luxury brands of Audi. (I’m not sure that’s translated accurately – SW)
Swade on GT on Geely
That Geely visited Saab’s factory is a given. At least nine other parties did the same. The partnership with Sheikh Maktoum is speculation. He was mentioned early in the piece but I can’t recall that he was specifically aligned with Geely.
One thing that the piece doesn’t mention is that Geely aren’t very big, are private and therefore not necessarily government backed. But more than all those – Geely are a minnow in their own market and not that well regarded.
Final note, Geely themselves have said they’re not in the market for Saab or Volvo. they stated that in a filing with their own stock exchange, though there’s some skepticism even in China about the integrity of such findings.
Verdict – a possibility, but a remote one in my book. Too small, too ambitious, and too much in need of Swedish guarantees when the Swedes would be worried about tech-drain to China.
GT on Fiat
Fiat boss Sergio Marchionne surprised all when he impudently declared that he wants to buy GM Europe and GM’s operations in South America.
Marchionne wants Saab to cooperate with any other make of car in the new super group. GM chief Fritz Henderson has negotiated with Marchionne but wants to have 30 percent ownership in the new high-Fiat. Marchionne has said that it could sell ten percent.
In buying Saab, Fiat expect large cuts in Trollhättan and the new 9-3 will be put off until Fiat found a new, appropriate, platform. The good thing with a Fiat-buying is that there already are developed forms of cooperation between Opel and Saab. Marchionne has said that no German car plants will be closed, which means a tough future for all others.
Swade on GT on Fiat
A solid analysis…..except
In the context of recent stories saying Saab have two or three bidders remaining, these bidders are people who Saab have been talking to for several months.
Fiat are not one of these bidders, because Fiat were never part of this process. Fiat just walked in to the picture and said “we want Opel and throw Saab in while you’re at it”
Verdict: If Fiat end up with Saab, it will be an extension of the Opel deal, not part of this process that Deutsche Bank are undertaing on GM’s behalf.
GT on a mysterious German Bank
The new buyer of the gang.
According to a source within the General Motors owns a German commercial bank on behalf of – General Motors. The Bank is acting as secret agents and it is not previously known that it is General Motors underlying interest.
The motive should be to monitor the Saab-management behavior and to have a bid ready if it turns out that it needed to prevent the Saab be in the “wrong” hands.
This can also be Fritz Mr Henderson’s way to make sure that he can control the Saab’s future and get to the five billion in loans from the European Investment Bank, EIB, as the Swedish government more or less promised a new, strong, owner.
Buying the German commercial bank Saab on behalf of General Motors is it just to get over the loans and then loot the company of all assets. Then there is a definitive end to the Saab.
Swade on GT on a mysterious German Bank
Rumours that the head of this German Bank was last seen on a grassy knoll in Dallas on November 1963 are yet to be proven.
I suppose there could be one of the bidders that we haven’t heard about who could be a front for GM buying something that they already own, but somehow I think Deutche Bank would see through the Groucho Marx disguise and call them out.
And besides, Fritz Henderson has come out in response to the claims that GM want to retain control of the Saab 9-5, saying he’s happy to work with Saab’s new owners in the future, but that that new owner will not be GM.
Verdict: Hmph
Final verdict:
I’d say GT scored half a point out of a possible three points, and that’s only if Geely are still in the race, which they have said they aren’t.
And it’s noted that they didn’t include the joker in the pack – Renco. I’m quite solid on my sources with this, so they fact that they haven’t put them in is indicative of the reliance I’ll place on the article.