Some time soon, Saab will announce who their new owner is.
In the past on this site, I've made very-well-educated guesses as to who's who in this drama and if the final three aren't who I've proposed, I'm still promising that nudie run outside GT.se's offices (as long as their writer, Jan-Erik Berggren, promises the same if he's wrong).
I'm making not-so-well-educated guesses in this post, but I still feel very confident in my predictions.
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FIAT
If FIAT are still in the game - and Maud Olofsson's saying they are - then it's because someone is happy to circumvent the proper process and let them through the back door.
Let me reiterate again - FIAT were not one of the original bidders and are not one of the official final three. But that doesn't seem to mean that the door is shut to them.
And nor should it be, IMHO.
I was opposed - and still am - to the idea of Saab being brought into a huge conglomerate with Opel still in the fold. They've been there with GM and they don't need to go there again.
But it looks like FIAT are going to miss out on Opel. And that opens a door for Fiat and Saab in my mind. There are a number of people at Saab that I've spoken with in the last few weeks - and a number of Swedes outside of Saab - who are in favour of a takeover by Opel FIAT.
The Italians and the Swedes seem to work well together, for starters, and Saab seem to feel that they've got something substantial to contribute to Fiat.
Perhaps Fiat leaves a better taste in the political mouths of the Swedes, too, which brings us to....
Renco
It's been all quiet on the Renco front. But I have a feeling that the PR crew at Saab are working overtime trying to figure out how they're going to sell Renco to the general public.
I'll go on the record here and now. Out of the three official bidders that I believe are in the running for Saab - Renco, Koenigsegg and BAIC - I think Renco is the most likely to win the day.
I've heard rumours that Ira Rennert may have lost a truckload of cash when Wall St rogue Bernie Madoff went under, but he's still well connected and said to have a personal wealth of as much as $6 billion.
He's well connected, should be well funded, and familiar with the suits at GM. What he wants with Saab is unknown, but according to Saab all three bidders have seen Saab's business plan, have committed to it and have proven they've got the funding to carry out what they've committed to.
Some have wondered whether Renco are really involved given that the Greens in Sweden reviewed the contenders and gave their thumbs up. Folks - it says more about politicians and marketing than anyone else and no-one should be surprised by a politician making the best of a photo opportunity.
I'll place my bet on Renco winning the prize. I may not like it, but I think that's the way things will go.
We'll see in a few weeks, I guess.
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The others.
I get the increasing feeling that whilst they're probably the most cashed up of the lot, the Chinese bidders are out of this race. Whether it's reluctance on their part after seeing an opportunity for a bigger fish in Opel, or reluctance on the part of GM or the Swedish government, or both, I think they're out of this race.
Whispers are coming down the lines that Koenigsegg weren't as well funded as the others, which may be a big obstacle.
You've all seen the Saab marketing posters where they mention a 9-4x and a 9-5 and maybe a smaller Saab coming down the line..... I think that the bidders who could see the value in planning for a smaller Saab and made some inclusion of this in their plans for Saab were probably better received than others.
Just my 0.02c
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Le Figaro are claiming that Fiat are one of "the three."
GT.se now say that Ripplewood, who were until recently a bidder for Opel via their spinoff company, RHJ, are one of "the three" and the likely winner.
Both incorrect. Nudie runs.

My head says Renco, and what a marketing opportunity that could be...but for Renco.
Maybe that's Ira's plan. Perhaps he wants to get into the BioPower, greenish thing as part of cleaning up his and his company's image. Could even be a good move.
I just wish we could know...and that we could see the 9-5 without it's camo!
Do they have the financial muscle? Where does their money come from?
I do not particularly like the FIAT option but they have top tech engines, petrol and diesel made by FiatPowerTrain, they could share platforms, they could put together dealer networks with Alfa and Lancia, etc......
So there are synergies......
Let's say that Saab and Gm management preferred renco for some time; has something better come along?
Ripplewood is no longer bidding on Opel - who's to say they arent now focused entirely on saab?
I am confident that Fiat will favor Alpha, Lancia, and Maserati (I know Maser is under a different Fiat umbrella) over Saab. Throw in the Chrysler brand and it is not at all clear where Saab fits in.
Chrysler gives Fiat US dealers, a solid large car platform and the Phoenix V-6. Saab offers another large car platform and access to GM engines that are not as good as the Phoenix. I don't see the point in maintaining Saab alive and hope that someone else carries the day.
German media is talking about Magna all the time when it comes to Opel so I think that Fiat will miss it. And that might be a chance for Saab.
BAIC, who came with a two-sheet-concept, were ignored by GM at Opel, maybe because they were knocked out at Saab before.
And to bring it even further maybe RHJ has already knocked at that back door for they want to spend their money as they missed Opel.
Or maybe next week we se a new owner noone has thought of. Anyway it goes, Saab management must see something in this new owner and I'm quite confident they make the right choice...
I also keep hearing that K-segg does not know how to manage mass produced cars. While I cannot disagree I have to wonder what does Renco or RJH know about it either?
Personally, I have no idea who will get Saab and I wouldnt put money on anyone mentioned so far as we just dont know. Its a matter of who is the best out of a not ideal bunch.
I still reckon Saab could get horrifically tied up in all the GM mess and ...... I hope I am wrong!
Which tells us they are very confident they have a solid new parent. Otherwise they would not commit to adding more employees.
BTW, Swedish Auto Motor & Sport now has a "Sabbometer" to show you who has the best chance on Saab:
http://www.automotorsport.se/news/18202/saabometern-vem-blir-ny-ägare/
Google search Renco, click news - The Peru Government is threatening to close Doe Run Peru as Rennert has NOT done what he promised there re serial toxic pollution. Rather, he continues to poison fellow human beings. Same reports say Doe Run is at 30% capacity and banks have cut off funding. Ira hasn't made good on $156 million financial shortfall. This guy is like Donald Trump, he has overstated his wealth, and now is in trouble.
A Google search of Ira Rennert shows he was a good friend of Madoff and lost approx $200,000 in cash. Not unrealized equity value, but cash.
Bad in general. Very Bad for Saab.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/saabcarsofficial/3570535156/sizes/l/in/photostream/
The "they all do it" rationalization doesn't hold up. If all companies knowingly polluted like Ira Rennert, we'd all be dead!
Well Swade, I have a hunch you may have to do a nudie run with "Ripplewood" written across your chest... And if I am wrong, I will do my own run outside my house. Under my clothes I shall be completely nude! (probably better that way for the sake of the neighbours...)
You shouldn't be so judgemental of Ira personally. He's an old man. I'm sure he has a lot of people under him, who's responsibility it was to comply with environmental regulations. Those people may now be fired.
However, there are a huge number of companies on the other side of the spectrum, which aren't operating that way. That said, Saab deserves a BETTER company; not a BAD company.
Names are very tricky - this is what I meant earlier by Renco possibly being a front for another investor. I also still maintain that if the Renco finalist for SaabIS U.S. Renco Group, then it is most likely through their wholly owned subsidiary AM General (Humvees), which is actually 70% owned by Perelman, NOT Ira Rennert.
Give it a break None, until we know for sure...
And, China just announcing even stricter fuel standards, favoring smaller vehicles, meaning Chinese auto manufacturers must be keenly interested in some turbo and/or bio-fuel technologies.
Who are YOU saying isn't? Are you saying NO ONE is running a company with INTEGRITY, PRINCIPLE, ETHICS, a sense of RESPONSIBILITY? You said, Every major industry or entity. Who? NAME names,....or don't be so quick to make such a blanket statement. There's a fine line between, Truth and Accusation. Accusation can turn into slander....my friend.
To me, the statement "who is 100% clean" is rhetorical and makes sense. There aren't many (if any) companies in the world today that are as clean as the wind driven snow when it comes to the environment, and other issues. If Saab goes to Renco, I won't be ecstatic, but I will be hopeful that Saab's ethos will serve as a positive influence on them to clean up their act...and a positive influence that will help Saab develop some truly class leading automobiles.
In a way, I think Renco may be the best choice from a development standpoint for Saab, because they have no pre-conceived ideas about passenger car production and may let Saab be Saab. Let's hope so anyway.
To me, the statement "who is 100% clean" is rhetorical and makes sense. There aren't many (if any) companies in the world today that are as clean as the wind driven snow when it comes to the environment, and other issues. If Saab goes to Renco, I won't be ecstatic, but I will be hopeful that Saab's ethos will serve as a positive influence on them to clean up their act...and a positive influence that will help Saab develop some truly class leading automobiles.
In a way, I think Renco may be the best choice from a development standpoint for Saab, because they have no pre-conceived ideas about passenger car production and may let Saab be Saab. Let's hope so anyway.
Might turn out to be a great idea.
@ Vagabond and Saabdog For me, the issue isn't who is 100% clean. Renco and Ira Rennert are 100% dirty. If that doesn't bother you, that's your business. What they continue to do in Peru bothers me to no end. Renco has been pursued by the US EPA, simply look at their site and search Renco. They have also bankrupted several firms. They poison people.
I've experienced some success with a GOOD company (rewards, recognition, giving back to the community) and I've been burned (scarred) by a BAD one. That's why I'm so passionate about Saab (becoming the cream which rises to the top).
Thanks Saabdog, for reaching out.
N
http://superstruny.aspweb.cz/images/fyzika/superstring/string_theory.gif
(OK, it's a joke about string theory but anyway...)
@None,......DITTO!
NO RENCO.......
There is a huge difference between denying Fiat and Renco. Fiats, perhaps a bit italian style, shoot from the hip announcement was big news here and Fiat is well known. No one here know what Renco is, it has not been headline news and Renco itself has been completely silent (as opposed to Fiat).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3WXQv4mlxk
This is more like "string bikini theory"...
And, I promise I hit the submit button only once!
Actually Daniel, we can start with this site:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x4635880
there are more sources......
chears
BTW: Bit of a slip there Swade! Surprised nobody else seemed to notice it.
I'm with ttaero...except when I googled Renco, the first hit was the Renco in India; and makes some sense for AM General (where else would Renco put Saab?) to add Saab to the Humvee plant with all those military contracts - DoD is committed to fuel efficiency. :)
Just really don't want SWade to do a nudie run though glad I use dial-up and cannot stream the video. Maybe SWade could get Hugh Jackman as his surrogate?
Whatever happens, I can now look forward to Hugh Jackman and Daniel Craig on stage together this fall - talk about a stimulus package for Broadway.
Lead smelting is a dirty business and they are allowed certain amounts of pollution. Sometimes they have exceded thier allowance and been fined by the government (US site), in other years they didn't even come close to meeting thier allowance.
As someone else has said, Renco might be the best option because they can allow Saab to do what Saab does with little interference. For all we know, someone in power at Renco might be a huge Saab fan who wants to see Saab reach its potential. Lets hope.
Otherwise, whoever JAJ (and his team) chooses.
On August I'm spending my vacation in Sweden, so I hope I can then visit the new SAAB, and maybe see the new SAAB's :) before Frankfurt.
That is small, does those tiny cars sell at all in the US?
Anyhow, I like the tour around "the indian scoop"!
Renco has a long history of pollution in the USA and Peru. Renco's Peru operation is one of then most polluted places on Earth. They openly harm people with emissions generated today. That, folks, is unbelievable and indefensible in the modern world. It continues today.
I agree the battery issue on the Prius is an issue - it would be even worse if the production of the battery was poisoning 95 of the people each day just to produce it - that is what Renco does.
Renco also has a long history of not paying workers pensions and bankrupting companies to avoid their responsibilities to the tune of billions.
Is this a good owner for Saab? Not in my book. Not ever.
None; Doesn't like Renco. Will not buy Car, toaster, or otherwise from Renco owned Saab....
...Check
I see smaller cars (a mini-Mini?) once in a while, NEVER on an Interstate highway. Rarely see Focus (or Minis) on the Interstates - or even on the Parkways that ban tractor trailers. Seeing more Prius (is the plural of Prius 'Prii'?) even on interstates, but they always look scared, surrounded by all those SUVs and the 40 ton rigs.
In the U.S., I suppose you could have a 2nd very small car for local driving, but I still believe the love affair with SUVs has been largely due to the illusion of feeling safe on the Interstates. I admit I sometimes feel threatened by those big rigs in my 9-3.
not that I don't out-maneuver ALL OF THEM when they get too aggressive. with a suitable finger motion.
the other problem with selling really small cars in U.S. is that weight problem that afflicts so many...and all the stuff we seem to need to carry around in our personal vehicles.
@elbobo - go for it. what will None do when he realizes the magnesium in something he owns was mined by Renco? :) chuckle chuckle
Personally, I am also appalled by Rennert's huge house. But, if Renco buys Saab for the longterm as they do with their other companies, and Saab is reborn, (please, with a hatch), I'm ok with that. Must be a TRUE Saab enthusiast at Renco for them to be this serious in the middle of a global auto meltdown.
None, i´ve said it before, I do know all the stuff you are polluting this blog with. And I do respect your opinion.But I really think this is getting tiresome.
Swade have given us a unic blog to use, don´t spoil this by using this forum as way to shout out you own voice and as a plattform for you propaganda.
I thougt this was a good place to in a friendly manner expressing our selves and out thought on saabs.
I might be wrong, but then this is wrong place as well.
Note to SAAB: Tell us soon, this is getting on our nerves!
I'm going to play devil's advocate here, though, and ask you a question, none.
You contended that Koenigsegg wouldn't provide a marketing bounce for Saab or any marketing benefit over the longer term, largely because a lot of people wouldn't know who Koenigsegg is (which I tend to think is largely irrelevant anyway. Just a picture of the K-Segg at a dealership and people will get the idea).
How negative will the impact of (God forbid) Renco buying be when the recognition of the Renco name will even less than the recognition of the K-Segg name?
Heck, a lot of people don't even know that Saab is owned by GM, which is one of the most recognised automotive names there is.
People such as yourself know Renco because you live in the higher end of the business world (you've mentioned your M&A background in previous comments) but to the average buyer, Saab will just be Saab and the signature on the paycheck will be irrelevant.
You've stated that Renco buying Saab will stop a lot of others from buying Saab. Unless a concerted effort is put into smearing Saab, how is that going to be so?
Like I said, I don't want this to happen either, but there's a chance it will.
I have never criticized you personally and am disappointed you do so with me and my views. I have shared information on Ira Rennert and his company that are absolutely true. No propoganda here, just facts. If you have some redeeming info to offer on Ira Rennert, I'm all ears.
He poisons children every day and you criticize me for pointing it out. Here in cyberspace, that's ok too.
You respect my opinion then accuse me of polluting the blog. With all due respect, Mr. Rennert is the polluter, the largest private polluter in the world. If you have no problem with that, fine by me.
You may disagree but I believe folks here are interested in facts, thoughtful comments, and diversity of opinion. That is why this site is healthy.
You also have no idea of my faith in Saab or concern and efforts to save her. No idea at all.
Sorry you couldn't help yourself. You should have.
Tkank you all for the good times.
And i say thanks to none fore telling me what is available fore everyone, and for telling me again and again.
signing of
Chris
First, after listening to others here, I agreed that there would be a marketing bump with K-Segg and agreed the motorjocks and some in the automotive press would love it. I did express doubt on scale and scope of the task for a small company.
You may be correct that many won't know Rennert but he is the antithesis of Saab values. The complete opposite. A major polluter buying a green oriented scandinavian brand is beyond the pale and Saab can't risk losing any sales from this association.
"Unless a concerted effort is put into smearing Saab, how is that going to be so?": Rest assured every documentary on Rennert or Doe Run will now mention Saab. The Sweden press will have a heyday. I can just picture a tabloid with the Saab logo on the Doe Run Peru factory. And every Saab competitor can and will use the association with Rennert to smear Saab - too easy not to.
You may have paid some tacit kudos to K-Segg's cars but overall, you were much more dismissive of the bump than that.
That may be correct in black and white terms, but playing devil's advocate again, there's a lot Rennert could say in his favour. The fact that the mine was completely unregulated before he bought from the government could be one. The fact that he's spent X-hundred million on cleanup could be another. The fact that he spent X-millions in Hurculaneum and it's now considered safe and part of the community could be another. The fact that the prices of lead and zinc have both fallen by around 50% in the last 12 months, hampering Doe Run's ability to pay for its own cleanup is yet another.
As I've said several times, Renco isn't my preferred option, but for every claim there's a counterclaim.
This doesn't tend to happen in the automotive industry. When was the last time you saw an anti-Volkswagen advertising campaign poster with Hitler on it?
Saab competitors will be busy promoting their own products.
There will be difficult times in the press, especially in Sweden. On that I agree, though the Swedish press have been remarkably uncritical so far when mentioning Renco.
None - thanks for being a good sport! :)
The reason: because of a "dire straits" situation, Fiat can't enter into extraordinary risks.
This leaves space for interpretations...maybe they will not bid also for Saab anymore....
Take a look at this: http://blogs.bnet.com/harvard/?p=2291&tag=nl.e713 ;-)