What a frantic week it’s been.
Everyone is publishing GT’s 0.5 out of 3 stars news piece but more than that, everyone’s got a theory as to why-this-would-be-good and why-that-would-be-bad and everything in between.
I think it’s time to stop, pause and take a breath.
Here are a few known things:
1) Saab have letters of intent from either two or three of the bidders who have been through the entire process.
2) The fact that these parties have signed letters of intent means that they have reviewed Saab’s business plan and agree with it, meaning that production and support will stay in Sweden and we’ll get a new 9-5 and 9-4x.
3) Fiat are outside of this group of two or three. They are external to the process and if they get control of Saab, it will be via a backdoor clause in their agreement for Opel, which is far from a done deal.
4) Saab have not identified who these two or three are, but I can tell you with the utmost confidence that one of them is The Renco Group. If you read a report that doesn’t include Renco or “a US private investor” then you should be skeptical. In fact, if I’m wrong about this then I’ll gladly do a nudie run outside the offices of GT in Gothenburg.
——
In a Saabnut’s Utopia, the group that takes over Saab will be a group of like-minded Saab lovers who have deep pockets and let Saab do their thing.
Watch for that report on Auto Extremists’s favourite news website: notgonnahappen.com
The basic fact is that we are all – me included – going to have to get used to the fact that whoever buys Saab will have a downside. Just like belonging to GM has a downside.
FIAT represent a risk of becoming just like GM. Vattenfall may want to just build electrics and seek manufacturing capacity. Renco have a poor environmental record. Geely (or any other Chinese company if Geely are out of it as they claim) represent fear of a technology drain. Koenigsegg are reportedly too small. A German bank is not a car company. BMW may just pinch Saab’s engineering and do nothing to build the brand.
Everyone has a downside.
The one thing that I have is faith in Saab’s management and reconstruction team. They are rebuilding the business so that when a new entity takes the reins, they will have what are reportedly two very, VERY good all-new vehicles waiting to be released. I’m confident that they will restructure marketing, support and distribution so that people can feel a personal connection to Saab once again.
The one thing management can’t do – and this is another fact to go with ones above – is make the final selection themselves. That’s GM’s job on the advice of Deutsche Bank.
If we choose to stay with Saab then we will all have to live with the new owner, which means we will all have a personal choice to make.
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{ 26 comments }
Couldn’t have said it better myself, mate. That’s why you’re Swade to begin with, haha!
It’s absolutely true that we will have to live with a downside, one way or the other – let’s just hope the downside is minimized. And to be frank, a Renco ownership has a lot more positives than negatives, say what you will about environmental record.
Oh btw. – imagine you’re wrong – can I sign you up for the exclusive rights to release and distribute your nudie run on DVD, Bluray and YouTube?
After all, it’s as good a business case as any Saab-related.
Buying Saab could be the first step in Renco trying to clean up it’s image. There’s an Aussie thing about giving someone or something a fair go. Perhaps we all should?
BTW if you’re gonna do that streak Swade, you’d better do it in the summer months. Frostbite can be painful!
I can organize an Outside Broadcast crew to shoot in full HD if you like!
You’d need a long lens, Mark…..
We’ve got 100:1 zooms…
Terrifying!! Better hope Renco’s on the shortlist!
LOL!
I’ve said it before but here it is again – I have confidence in Saab Management’s decision. They have more to lose than any of us – their jobs. It’s GM’s Management decision I’m worried about, after all, why would they start making good decisions now?
Ouch… frostbite, that sounds nasty!
Swade:
As usual, good post. A LoI doesn’t mean the parties agreed to anything (like employment, plans or production) other than what they agreed to. Especially if price is the main determinant.
Markac – With all due respect, you should tell those nice people in Peru, after 40 years of bad acting, you believe Rennert may want to clean up his image by buying Saab. He poisons people and they die. He has defaulted on his obligations to the tune of more than $1 billion. I respect your decision to support Saab with this or any fellow. Many will not and you should respect them in return. They are blowing this! With sales in the tank, Saab will suffer for it. Long way to breakeven unit volume today
Management didn’t get the group they wanted, the group that believed in their plan and the group that management believed in. Instead they got this junk show.
To support my friend Swade, I’ll pay for the sunscreen if we are BOTH wrong!
As I said before, it seems that Saab will have to select from the best of a bad bunch. GM will have the final say. It will do what is best for GM’s interests, not for Saab’s unless it’s own bankruptcy has commenced and then the picture could change.
As a matter of record, I don’t support Renco.
I don’t support Fiat’s huge aims if they come at the expense of Saab and I have quite mixed feelings about Geely. I do however, support Saab.
We as individuals have little say in this. We can only hope for the best, but it appears to me that Saab’s options are quite poor. Perhaps Koenigsegg would be a good solution, but I don’t put much faith in it either. If you’re a Saab enthusiast, you have to be worried at the moment.
Markac:
I respect your views and hope we are all happy in the end.
That bad bunch is what frustrates and they need to hear US!. I don’t like this and really want to talk about great cars. Saab has huge challenges to overcome and a bad owner will not help. If there are people from Saab, GM, DuetceBank, or the candidates, they need to know they won’t be blindly supported.
I love Saab but won’t sell my soul for a car from truly bad people. And I don’t want to be here in a year talking about the new owner like we do about GM. I’m over it. And it is wearing on us all.
Maybe they should auction it on EBay!
Couldnt agree more Swade. Lets have some faith in the good people working on this..And I think if we rule out every major company that doesnt have absolutely clean sheet, well I dont think there would be any left.. Sadly
Second you on that Per.
Joy to read your posts Swade.
Tom
Swade really got the point, there is a downside on everything.
With Renco it’s the etical point – maybe they are trying to clean up their image by buying Saab and if they really mean it and work on the problems in Peru they might deserve a chance. And besides the evironmental thing they might fit and let Saab do their work…
But poisoning people has no excuse and to be honest I had problems dealing with them owning Saab.
With Fiat it’s the question if they really are willing to develop Saab or if Saab is gonna vanish within a few years. Sure I could see sense in Fiat building a strong Saab and I hope they will, but the fear and doubts are strong.
Geely…I really don’t know. I’m afraid of them moving everything to China as most here are. But I also have in mind that it seems like Jaguar made a good effort by getting sold to Tata though that deal seemed as stange some years ago.
When it came to Saab getting out of GM we all had our hopes on that process and it looks like we get little dissapointed about the three they can choose from now. Saabnuts as I am I am still hoping that one on our list will be replaced by a buyer with minimum downsides.
I’m with MartinW, I have faith in Saabs decision, but I doubt if it’s up to them.
I have just sent a translation of an article from Ttela.se regarding the swedish Green Party spokesman Peter Erikssons visit to the Saab plant.
He has been informed on the final bidders and….. He gives the thumbs up….
Thats from the Green Party….
Cheers/Tom
I sent the translation to you Swade.. But I guess that was understood.
Cheers mates!
This morning, the swedish news site e24, published the rumour about Renco. E24 quoted the Swedish magazine DI as source.
I got my hands on a printed version of DI, and when reading between the lines, it seems as if DI:s source is a website .. saabsunited
Expect this to be all over the web soon.
More I read, more I realize that all this is
big game of chess.
Turbo nines reporting that GM and or SAAB
Rejected Magna bid because they want them
to take on OPEL and leave SAAB to FIAT.
It actualy make more sense this way.
I also belive that German investment bank is
working together or as Renco representative.
But to get back to FIAT; they don’t need Opel
because it would not fit at all in they automotive
portofolio.
And there is still isue for Alfa Romeo and Lancia
Dealers for USA. They definitly won’t fit well
with Chraysler, Dodge or Jeep dealers.
They need something upmarket line of dealers.
And they still need to design frame for Alfa Romeo
166/167. SAAB 9-5 chassy is perfect fit for that.
As well some good high hp V6 engine, where is
GM/SAAB better of than Chrysler. And at last
there is XWD from SAAB 9-3,9-4 & ng 9-5.
Just like chess game.
So Renco and the German bank with GM behind the scenes may be two different viewpoints of the same bid. Makes some kind of sense if there is multiple parties behind the bid, and as there is a GM-Renco connection through AM General.
Hey, I’m new here, but I’ve been a Saab fan for ages, and I’ve been reading this blog pretty much every day since the economic crisis started..
Since you are all dedicated Saab fans, you may already have seen this, but I thought this would be appropriate to post here as it’s a good way to take your minds off the uncertainty that Saab faces these days… Never stop hoping
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dyILRTrrF74&feature=related
The next 20-30 days will be really interesting. So many things are happening at once now. Little league perspective: (SAAB sale) Geely, Renco, Financial investor deal expected to be concluded in June/July.
Big league perspective: (GM Europe sale) Magna + GAZ or FIAT. Will Saab be part of the larger European group? Latest news is that German, Italian and Swedish governments are pushing for the FIAT bid.
And GM is likely to go into chapter 11 any day now.
My 5-cent are on the FIAT bid, EU investment founding will ultimately decide and FIAT are well-connected politically. Sweden will grant a 1 billion US or so, meaning that Trollhättan will be saved.
And actually, SAAB, small as it is, will be a vital part in that constellation due to it’s dealerships. Now imagine Opel (VW luxury), Alfas (Italian sport) and Saabs (Scandinavian individualism) going in hard the Asian, and North American markets?
It’ll be great when we know something and can move on.
As far as Renco, no more Saabs for me, but that’s just me. Bet Maud Olofsson will love them too. Miss Renewable Energy and Mr Pollution should get along just fine. Opposites attract!
No news on Fiat in days.
Hey SWade – good thing it’s summer in Gothenburg!
If Renco Group is one of the LoI finalists, MAYBE they intend Saab to be corporately joined with AM General, which is 70% owned by Perelman. Which would enable the Green Party to give a thumbs up…
I still think there is a dark horse in this final lap – one we have heard zero rumors about. Like, does Prince Albert of Monaco drive a Saab?
GM will be looking for the bid that pays them most if not all of that 1.75BIL that Saab allegedly owes GM.
@Markac makes a good point – example: Rupert Murdoch has NOT turned the Wall Street Journal into a gossip tabloid as was hysterically feared at the time. Oi! Does Murdoch like Saabs?
Swade, as always, thanks for another great post!
@None, as usual, you’re on point. I’m in total agreement.
I’m just watching and waiting to see what happens………..
Karen,
I’m not suggesting Rennert will turn Saab into the car equivalent of a gossip tabloid, I just won’t buy a car from him. Saab is in a struggle and needs as many buyers as they can get. The rumored finalists don’t fit the core Saab buyer. It is often fatal to go away from your loyalists.
I think you are right, there may have been a “dark horse” out there that would have made everyone supportive.
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