The following table shows European market share data for 2009, up to the end of May. If you’re looking for Saab, the place to check is down near the bottom. Just above Lexus.
It’s nice to be able to say your beating out a marque like Lexus, but you’d want to be able to say you’re beating out other companies as well. Unfortunately, if there are any other companies below Lexus, they’re not named so we don’t know who they are (tho Cadillac must be one, right?)
We all know sales have been in the toilet due to a perfect storm involving the GFC and uncertainty about Saab’s future.
We also know that Saab needs new models, which are coming.
So the big question is, how high do you think Saab can be on this list in May 2010?
By then we’ll have the 9-3x in dealers yards, as well as the all-new 2010 Saab 9-5. The Saab 9-4x should be fairly close to release at this time, too, though probably not close enough.
Place your bets. I’m aiming for 1% share and a spot just above Alfa Romeo.
–
Thanks for the table, Roeland!
Related posts:
That Opel blurb...
{ 26 comments }
Ouch. I think 1% is too optimistic, though – just look at Volvo’s share.
My bet would be perhaps 0.7% for May 2010 and just under 1% for 2010 up to May. It all depends on how quick they ship the NG9-5, but we ought to be realistic – a large premium saloon cannot sell that many units.
I also don’t place much hope on the 9-3X for volume – in fact, I am tempted to think the 9-4X will outsell the 9-3X by a significant margin. With all three new vehicles established on the market Saab could perhaps aim for 1-1.1%.
To move up to 1.5% territory, Saab would need the NG9-3. Then, 2% sounds very optimistic, but it is probably doable if in say 2013 we have the NG9-3 out for a year, a mid-cycle refresh of the 9-5 out, the 9-4X as is and a just released 9-1 on a shortened NG9-3 platform.
Keep it in perspective: 2% market share would be half of Audi’s and BMW’s sales, and more than Volvo’s. VW has worked very hard to establish the olympians on the market for over a decade – hard to imagine Saab will achieve half of this in just a couple of years without the vast resources of VW.
I think 1% market share is a viable mid-term goal. 2% could be something to aim at by 2015, for example.
ouch indeed. too many known unknowns, especially Opel/Vauxhall, Mitsubishi (I keep wondering if they will exit autos), exchange rate of SEKrona vs Euro, end of scrappage programs, and the machinations of VW with Skoda.
on the other, never rule out the potential Saab excitement that can build in 2009 and 1Q10…especially if some 9-3Xs show up at the Winter Olympics and get some airtime because of who is driving them. I know there won’t be any money for official endorsements, but you never know.
BTW, Fiona’s Aero got beautiful exposure in tonight’s episode of Burn Notice.
Isn’t France’s E85 infrastructure moving forward? Saab could get that 2010 sales bump to 1% with bio-fuel engines. idea came to me while reading this very positive U.S. auto blogpost, Aaron Gold specifically notes the synergies between K-egg and Saab on “the higher power potential of ethanol”
http://cars.about.com/b/2009/06/18/koenigsegg-to-buy-saab-probably.htm
“Royal Pains” just showcased Saab’s tightest turning radius by doing a U-turn on Gin Lane in Southhampton, NY – beautiful 900 convertible. Gin Lane is perfect product placement for that tight turning radius..
good night all!
I am gonna say about 0.6pc as we all know this year is a killer of a market. I think longterm maybe Saab can get to 1.5pc but thats gonna take a new 9-3 and a baby Saab to achieve.
Lets hope I am wrong and its higher.
This is Europe only, well. Nobody on the list lost as much share as SAAB. Let’s be realistic. Being on the list must be target one. Remaining at the 0,2 % share number two (if the market in general picks up so will SAAB).
Increasing the share to last years 0,5 % is a huge task that might happen in 2-2,5 years when all new models (SAAB says 18 months) have had their presentation ánd real sales start, thereby not forgetting that the 9-4 X’s main market will be the USA not Europe.
So one year from now I think we’re at 0,2 % still. If the K-guys have their long term interest as they say, they should be prepared for this too.
The past has shown that when the Saab importers do their job well, the natural market share is about 0,8%. With more new carlines and with newer models this share could be somewhat higher, so let’s assume 1,0%.
But to get the sales numbers back where they should be there has to be trust. Trust with buyers in general so that the market returns to better levels and trust in Saab itself.
I will go for 0.7%. Hoping for some from the new 9-5 + 9-3x and that people are are geting to like this small unique car maker. If you wanna be main stream, buy a passat, avensis or A4. Do you wanna tell the world that you are free thinking and have your opinion on many things, buy å Saab. Not very well written, but you get the drift.
I think I was looking a the wrong columns when I wrote 1% in that post. But I’d still hope for 1% by the end of next year with all the new models out and the marketing message taking root.
By May next year, I’ll go with Per at 0.7%
Will be interesting to see what happens to the winners of the scrapping bonusses (Dacia, VW…) when the bonusses run out. I think the shares will change for the cars sold due that can’t be sold again next year.
For Saab it might be in between 0,7 and 1 percent I think.
Swade – the figures this end of the pond in Southern Africa is just as dismal.
There is an interesting article in the online edition of the International Herald Tribune on the auto industry. Have a look at http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/18/a-scorecard-for-the-auto-industry containing some succint references to Saab. Enjoy
Don’t want to sound obnoxious, but in previous posts I argued that Saab should not follow the Lexus model of high base equipment, high base price, but rather the Mercedes, BMW and Audi model of a lower base price, with lower base equipment and lots of options and possibilities to customise the car to one’s own tase.
Of course it might work differently in the US, but for Europe the MBA model works best.
By the way, don’t forget that the Netherlands is one of the largest Saab markets and sales absolutely *halted* since the beginning of this year because the importer (Kroymans) went belly up. Partly because of the failure of GM’s ‘own’ premium brand, Cadillac…
Looking at that list I would like to see SAAB ranked higher than Chrysler. Personally I don’t think that the new 9-3x is going to make a difference in Europe. With the lack of AWD in diesel form and prices of petrol already starting to hit €1.40/Ltr for petrol I feel most buyers will opt for the standard diesel Sportcombi. if the new 9-5 is launched Spring 2010 and SAAB can build up a large enough order bank between the IAA in Frankfurt and start of production then maybe they could achieve maybe a 0.5% market share. However I don’t think we’ve had any news that the new 9-5 will be on the forecourts so early next year.
What I really do hope for, which will make a great impact in SAAB returning back to it’s roots. Would turning the new 9-5 into a hatch to go up against the new A5 Sportback. Premium hatchbacks are SAAB’s hunting ground not AUDI’s or BMW’s. This needs to be addressed fast and a hatchback 9-5 would be the perfect way for SAAB to say “We’re back on track and we mean business!”
So folks If you could decide what would it be?
9-5 hatchback but no Aero until MCE
9-5 Hatchback but no entry level 1.6 until MCE
or as is, 4Dr limousine?
Maybe the European auto writers will start thinking like Michael Block, who sees this deal’s technology implications (a fine read for the start of a new day, with 2-door 900 hatch photo):
“…if Koenigsegg injects some of its own remarkable automotive insight and engineering prowess into Saab, then I truly believe we will see one of the greatest resurgences of intelligent and progressive automobile manufacturing of the 21st century.
…
Clearly, Koenigsegg has the expertise, resources, and technology to be one of the world’s greatest supercar manufacturers.
Now, with its new Saab subsidiary, it has the opportunity to pass down some of that automotive excellence to everyday cars that you and I can afford.”
http://www.examiner.com/x-1060-Orlando-Auto-Examiner~y2009m6d19-Koenigsegg-buys-Saab-The-automotive-gods-may-smile-upon-us-once-again
Can the news about Saab with Koeningsegg effect the sales a bit?
I think the media in Sweden has been more negative on Saab than the international press, only my impression so i guess the sales will pick up abroad first:)
For sales to pick up, customers will like to be absolutely sure that Saab will exist in 4 years time. It’s too early for that, so I expect that customers will hold off on buying a Saab for a while.
I’d also like to see that Saab drops prices a lot, because (let’s face it), the current range is not really competitive at the current price point.
What I’d also like to see is that Saab works on it’s non-E85 range to make it a lot more CO2-friendly. If I compare Audis and BMWs with Saabs with comparable performance, then those Audi’s and BMWs use a lot less fuel and emit a lot less CO2.
Also performance on paper is better for comparable Audis and BMWs.
Or, it say it in another way. Even while I really like Saab, currently I would not buy one. To thirsty and too expensive. I’d rather go for a far more modern Audi, BMW or even VW. I’d rather have a 1.8TSI than a 2.0t…
U.S. does have biggest potential for sales pick-up, product/price/financing/maintenance free warranty to counter the Germans – dependent of course, but, the only other news this morning is that Eker’s childhood friend is film director Harald Zwart, now based in Santa Monica, CA. Swartz emailed E24, willing to make commercials for Saab, anything to help Eker. Eker quoted saying ‘now it’s just at negotiating table, can not know results until third quarter’.
http://e24.no/naeringsliv/article3127402.ece
In the meantime, at least five million Yanks with mostly right Saab-demographics are seeing Fiona’s Aero and Dr. Hank’s 900 convertible in two shows on USA channel on Thursday nights. Terrific reminders of Saab during this summer of zero advertising for Saab in the U.S.
Maybe K-egg and Saab can get a show on the Speed Cable channel???
In Romania I don’t know how Saab will increase its market share, even with this k-eggs buying.
).
I told this to two of my colleges (one drives a VW Golf, another one a Skoda Octavia RS – sport version of Octavia) and they never heard of k-egg. And they are potential clients (IT managers) of new saabs (I’m still in used cars part of the market
However, from some statistics that I saw, it is like in the rest of the world, about 10% of BMW and Audi share in new cars. But in used ones Saab is I think around 1% of BMW and Audi.
I think it will take years to bring back credibiity to the SAAB brand in Europe (excluding Sweden). For 2010 I would say it is well done if one were to reach 0,3 and anything above 1,2 in 2015 is close to remarkable.
I think it is sad SAAB has lost so much “momentum” during the last 15 years. I remember saying, maybe 20 years ago, that SAAB should set up a Formula-1 team and position the SAAB as a truly “high-tech-performance cars” – which I thought it was. The aeroplane link has been just soooooo silly.
Looking at the bright side…theres nowhere to go but UP! And there IS tons of market-share to pick from now that Saab has been released from the basement and can fly without GMNAs dead-weight.
I think it is almost impossible to set even a benchmark for Europe, as SAAB’s market share differs widely from country to country, but I consider 1% and even 0,7% of the European market a very optimistic estimation for the next two or three years. In my country, SAAB is still well below 0,1%, and I think that 0,4% would already be a fabulous market share.
Of course, there are countries like the Netherlands or the UK, whose car purchasers are much more perceptive of Scandinavian brands, whereas the market in Germany is very difficult for SAAB because of the powerful national competion and the general attitude of the motor press.
I think that as a whole, SAAB will have to chose their marketing tools very carefully as to adjust them to the target groups for the new models. IMHO, SAAB marketing during the last years was defined (and limited) by the rather conventional, if very professional approach of GM, which – again IMHO – was not really sophisticated enough to appeal to SAAB’s highly individualistic customers.
In general, I would say that automotive marketing in Europe will have to use more and also new channels to communicate brand identity and brand values to the customers. SAAB still has an outstandingly loyal fan-base. The restructuring process and the Koenigsegg deal have created a lot of public attention that will be very useful for the marketing of the models to be launched. But in the years to come, other instruments will be needed to build a sustainable and loyal customer base for the future – especially among younger people – as to really stabilize sales figures on a level that will guarantee a healthy economic development of the brand in the long term.
in order to succeed, two fields: servicing and look at the competition.
Competition: There muts be attractive offerings in comparison to the competition. But what or who is Saab’s competition. Of course, Saab is free to choose. They tried that for almost 10 years with Audi. It does not seem that Audi, nor its customers, have noticed. So, maybe time for rethinking? Like, who are really our competitors? I.e. such companies/cars a potential Saab buyer would in real life also consider efore buying a car. I strongly believe that two important competitors for Saab are Volvo (Scandinavian home market and overall Scandinavian design/image) and (believe it or not) Skoda, in particular the new Superb (Skoda also being a choise of people making their own decisions, i.e. individualists): So, Saab should really compete with those.
Servicing: I think a complete rethinking of servicing strategy should be made, maybe with the result that car selling and car servicing are separated, and car servicing and training or personell is made available to more people (only true fanatics would consider buying a Saab if they had to drive 100 km to get it serviced).
As for the market share: It should be as high as allowing Saab to survive and have enough money for future development. Only Saab will know this number.
By and large Saab has always been a “german” car. Its Bosch, its Pierburg, its engines, on and on, just assembled in Sweden. Certainly the German competition always wanted that silenced. How many Saabs get sold in Germany? 3-4K. Pathetic.
Then you have GMNA, who basically NEVER gave a flyingF about Cinderella. They were so thrilled about sellin five different versions of Pontiacs, it was pretty much up to Opel to develop euro and global cars. Theres at least a dozen possible boners there.
Then ya got the Koreans, Chinese, and Japan reverse-engineering your shit…
This should be great…I have confidence it WONT be Fd up.
One year from now, Saab will remain close to the bottom. Two years from now top of the bottom third. Three years from now in the middle.
Subaru is missing on this table
Comments on this entry are closed.