Saab Koenigsegg snapshot

Hugh W wrote the following in comments and I thought it a good opportunity to give a best-estimate timeline for the Saab-Koenigsegg deal.

My mind is getting blurry with trying to figure out where things stand: will k-segg deal go through? When is it finalized? how long can Saab last without a cash infusion? When do they get or not get the EIB loan? etc?
Could someone outline for us braindeads a simple timeline of the next few months with any important milestones and/or drop dead dates and events?

So, to my personal best-educated guesses…..
Will the k-segg deal go through?
There’s a lot riding on this deal, that’s why I think it will. GM provided funding to get Saab through their reconstruction. The next reconstruction deadline is around 6 or 7 weeks away and Saab do NOT want to have to file for another extension without a buyer in the bag.
Similarly, Koenigsegg and their partners are not going through all of this for fun. Their name will be mud if they can’t pull this off. More than that, they want it.
The Swedish government do not seem to be keen on K-Segg as owners and would rather have Fiat step in. Fiat would only do that as part of a deal for Opel, however, and that seems highly unlikely at this point given the union problems that decision would create (not to mention GM’s fear of competition and inability to buy Opel back down the track).
When is it finalized?
That’s the multi-million dollar question, isn’t it?
Saab themselves have said they want to get the deal stitched up by mid-July. This would fit in with GM’s needs as they will most likely sell what they call the ‘good’ parts of their operation to the “New GM” on July 10th.
Koenigsegg have been identified as the preferred bidders and they have first crack at formulating a deal. They’re in their due diligence phase at the moment, but that isn’t open ended. If there’s nothing looking like it’s definitely in the pipeline by July 10 (New GM time) then maybe they’ll open the field up again.
How long can Saab last without a cash infusion?
Saab have said all along that GM provided enough cash to get them through the reconstruction period. This appears to be so if they operate with a skeleton crew.
Saab are already forecasting increased sales and a need for increased production in the second half of the year. If a deal is done mid-July, it may still be a few months before that deal is ‘closed’. This is why Saab most likely need a bridge loan from the Swedish government in order to increase production to meet the exected increase in demand.
When do they get or not get the EIB loan?
Apparently the earliest Saab can secure the EIB loan is September 22. This is when the board of the EIB next meets. It’s my understanding that they’re loan applications etc are all documented and prepared, but the EIB seems to stick to a pretty structured schedule.
There’s talk of Saab petitioning to speed this up, but I don’t know how they’d do that.
It’s important to remember that the EIB loan money is only for new technology to help make more effecient cars and production (think “green”)
etc?
Too late for me to think of more things to add. But hopefully that’s helpful.
It’s all best guesswork, but based on pretty solid information that’s appeared in the last few weeks.

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