e24 – When analysts analyse too much analysis

As mentioned in earlier articles, the Swedish press – over all – is not welcoming yesterday’s Share Purchase Agreement between Koenigsegg and GM with open arms and warm hearts.
They’re stating it’s just another piece of paper, etc, and that there’s no substance behind it. e24.se are stating today that Saab are closer to closure today than what they were a week ago.
If you look at this logically, it’s true. Saab may well close at some point in the future (unless you believe that the company will exist until the end of time) and so it stands to reason that today they’re a week closer to their closure date.
But of course, they’re doing more than stating the obvious – they’re claiming that there’s a very real risk that Saab will close very soon. e24’s contention is that because Koenigsegg Group are still to settle 30% of their funding requirements, that it’s all over for Saab. They say that Koenigsegg are putting pressure on the government to come up with the money, and the government are saying they won’t do so.
All of these claims have a large element of truth to them.
Koenigsegg Group do need to come up with more in the way of finance. And the Swedish government is definitely resisting any calls to get involved.
But here’s the one thing I can’t accept about e24’s argument:
For CvK and the rest of them to sign off on the Share Purchase Agreement with the clear knowledge that a demonstrably resistant government would be their only chance at gaining finance……… to go in 30% under-funded with this knowledge (and this is before we talk about EIB loans and guarantees)……. to do all of that would be monumentally stupid.
And I just can’t convince myself that these people are monumentally stupid. You don’t get to the places some of them have got to be being monumentally stupid. Sure, you take some risks along the way, you stretch yourself and the people you’re with, but this?
Sorry e24, but I just can’t agree. CvK and the Koenigsegg Group have been consistent in their approach the whole way along. There’s nothing but incredibly bad consequences for everyone if they fail, and to pin their chances of success squarely on the chance of swaying this government – with no alternative whatsoever – would be folly beyond belief.
Wouldn’t it?
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TTELA quote CvK as follows:
“We [would] not [have signed] on unless we were convinced that this can be solved,” said Christian von Koenigsegg.
And I think the same. Why stake your life on something that has absolutely no chance of success?
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Thanks to Sven in comments for the tip…

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