I mentioned in my snippets entry earlier today that any potential new owner would have to re-apply for an EIB loan if such a loan was needed.
This came from a quote by Maud Olofsson, the Enterprise and Energy minister in the Swedish government. This is just a Googletrans, but it seems pretty clear cut:
Maud Olofsson also notes that the negotiations on EIB loans made are linked to Koenigsegg, which means that any new buyer must restart the process.- As long as there is a buyer who needs to EIB loans to drag it on. But this is not a problem for a buyer with enough money. Do you have enough money, it allows.
So if you're not Koenigsegg, you need to re-start the process. If you've got anough money, then you should be OK as you wouldn't need it.
Well......
I've received a note from Djup Strupe* about this claim, and our inside friend begs to differ.
Putting it simply......
According to Djup Strupe's knowledge of the matter, the EIB loan application is one made by Saab, based on a business plan developed by Saab with the Koenigsegg ownership group in mind but it could be taken up by any new owner who had a strong ownership structure in mind. These are the two critical elements - the plan and a solid ownership structure.
So if a new owner comes along and wants to implement Saab's plan, then the EIB loans should still be available to them. Saab are the applicant and as long as the conditions described in the application are not altered, the loans should still be accessible. If any new application is needed, it would likely be a much quicker affair involving the credentials of the new ownership body. The plan is already known, approved and accepted (and just between you and me, well regarded)
The plan is the critical, time consuming element and that belongs to Saab.
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*Djup Strupe is the name given to insiders who help us stay on top of things from time to time. It's Swedish for 'Deep Throat'
I hope its enough.
A new buyer stepping into K-segg's shoes at this point would want to get comfortable with that business plan, or to modify it based on the new buyer's own judgment. Either way could take some time. And the more modifications were necessary, the more likely the EIB application would take some time.
I am from Malaysia and own a Saab 93 Aero. I have a concern regarding spare parts if Saab is gone, can anyone share their view about parts availability when the car manufacturer is wound up.
How likely will those part suppliers continue to make the part for after market for the years to come?
Could Magna International still be looking at Saturn ?
What vehicle would they sell now the Opel deal has collapsed ?
Could this be a shared vehicle with SAAB ?
Would Saturn be a good stablemate for SAAB ?
Would Magna be a good owner for SAAB ?
Could Magna qualify for the EIB loan ?
I guess what Djup Strupe is saying here is that it's not strictly a necessity for the whole process to begin again from scratch. Saab believe a lot in the plan they've developed.
Of course, if a buyer doesn't need the EIB, then all this is moot.
I would go as far to say that the business plan is intrinsically linked to the Koenigsegg Group AB since some of the conditions of European Investment Bank (EIB) loan involve unique and environmentally efficient technologies that are currently being pioneered by Cargine Engineering AB and presumably Koenigsegg Automotive AB:
http://www.saabsunited.com/2009/06/what-to-do-with-600m-cargine.html
Furthermore, clarification needs to be sought as to which legal entity actually submitted the plan to the EIB and thus is held accountable for its receipt and subsequent investment.
And absolutely, for those investors flush with financial resources then it becomes a moot point!
Perhaps a more likely scenario would be that GM brings back K-egg Group to the table with a "sweetened" deal? Seems like the least energy-demanding step to turn SAAB into something positive for all involved parties given that K-egg Group essentially had a green light with regard to the EIB-loan with the exception of the EU commission (mostly a formality), and GM would be part owner in the new SAAB anyway.
I still don’t understand what went wrong with this deal.
I have another theory, would GM qualify? (sorry Swade Im just thinking out loud). GM could use the money and have Saab devolop new eco-technology for GME turning Saab into some kind of tuner akin to Lotus. Just a thought.
Someone has a lot to answer for, this is not just about K'egg pulling out! Why would Deutsche Bank recommend K'egg in the first place? Is it some kind of German plot to get rid of some kind of competition for Opel? Again, I am thinking out loud. There is SO MUCH more to this than meets the eye.
With a already downsized saab, with prepared application to EIB, production equipment for 9-5 installed. Saab is a much more attractive company today. The current failure is not really saabs fault, its GM, Koenigsegg and the governments fault.
Imagine all those companies that now can start to borrow money again to improve their bids for Saab, and those that might be eyeing volvo, but considering how much cheaper it is to get saab. I personally believe that saab needs a combination of swedish, chinese and american owners to not just survive another 2-3 years but long beyond the next financial crash and recession.
Just wondering if they really need BAIC for that.
I am still looking at Fuji Heavy Industries though, and if I read their balance sheet correctly, they should have ample capital to finance this deal. As in almost 2 Billion USD. Where as Hyundai Corp has maybe $330 Million, which is not a big chest.
(Please proof me wrong on the numbers)
Right now, main question, who has cash and wants a quick deal. Similar to buying a house, right. I believe Swade already made that statement before. Someone with cash is king, someone with mortgage is second tier.
General concensus is that future growth lays within China, ie Asia. Yet a deal between a South Korean car maker and a Chinese company is probably tricky.
So I opt for a Japanese company.
Just posted at GMInsidenews. Looks like there is a possibilty GM may keep SAAB. If it means the brand lives all the power to them. In end if it wasn't for GM SAAB would have died a long time ago.
http://www.gminsidenews.com/forums/f70/saab-decision-coming-soon-two-possible-options-86435/
"The other option that the GM Board has is to retain the Saab brand, which is slated to have nearly an entire new product line by the end of 2010, all of which were designed/engineered under GM. If this option were selected we're told GM would likely elect to shutter the Trollhattan, Sweden assembly plant so that GM could further leverage their other global manufacturing facilities across Europe. At the moment GM is finalizing their restructuring plan for their other European unit, Opel, which encompasses three German factories. Opel's "home" plant, Ruesselsheim, is currently the sole plant building the Epsilon II-based model, the Opel/Vauxhall Insignia, that Saab's new 9-5 is based upon. GM's original pre-bankruptcy plan was to build the 9-5 in Ruesselsheim too, and with the 9-5 not yet officially on sale and in full-scale production, this seems to still remain the option."
Why would GM shut the Trolhattan factory to build Saab's in Germany where labour costs are so much higher? Makes no financial sense!
I truly hope Merbanco will reconsider and have the resources to close this. Going back with Opel, Chevy and GMC is a grim prospect.
Granted, probably better than dying, but that's all subjective. Is paralysis better than death?
We used to have an airline in Australia called Ansett. In a similar fashion it was dumped by it's parent and a deal was struck with Solomon Lew and Lindsay Fox.
Days before settlement the deal was over and Ansett was no more. Ansett was a big company that people never expected to go under but it did.
We need to fight hard to save SAAB, because if it goes it will never come back.
Perhaps I've got this crazy idea in my head because I've just watched the Mad Men season finale for a 5th time, but why doesn't Saab just buy GM out? GM was essentially giving Saab away for free, so as not to take on the burden of closing plants, shuttering dealerships, etc.
Koenigsegg was going to be more of a figurehead anyway, without bringing much funding, large-scale manufacturing, or distribution networks to the table. Or was the funding from Fabela, et al, that substantial?
Now that the loan is so close, do they really need CvK and Co.? With the BAIC backing combined with the EIB loans and continued tech-sharing with GM, why can't they go out on their own? Isn't that essentially where there were going anyway, behind the thin veil of KG AB?
Not such a silly idea at all!
SAAB could become totally autonomous as they once were .
Go for it Boys ... Grab the EIB money and run .
As for a joint Chinese-Korean venture being a "tricky" prospect, I don't see why. China is Korea's #1 trading partner and Hyundai already has a 600,000 car manufacturing capacity in China alone. BTW: Hyundai runs its China operations under a joint venture with BAIC.
According to Expressen Merbanco has showed their interest for Saab again. Don't know if there is any truth behind their story... maybe they just read SU and made up a story.
http://www.expressen.se/Nyheter/1.1792997/uppgifter-i-natt-nu-vill-bank-kopa-saab
According to this article at http://www.expressen.se/Nyheter/1.1792997/uppgifter-i-natt-nu-vill-bank-kopa-saab Merbanco has showed their interest in Saab again. Don't know if there is any truth behind the article or if they just read SU and made something up.
The NG9-5 has to hit the street ASAP, so another delay (3-4 months) by moving the production back to Germany would be a suicide.
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And to the quote from Maud Olofsson; I don't think she is that wrong, but I also don't think Djup Strupe is also wrong. My theory is that a new owner would have to apply for the EIB Loan once again, but this time it would be a simple formal action as the conditions haven't changed.
Best would be if, for example, Merbanco could take over Saab without needing the EIB initially and then apply for a loan for further development of green technologies. That would be the key to a quick deal.
My opinion (small and worthless) is that the best thing for GM and Saab at the moment would be for GM to fund Saab as it's done up till now, while continuing the sale process with another of the top 3-4 candidates. (please please please let it be Merbanco) But....they also need to get production ramped up, show increasing sales...re-establish consumer confidence (if that's at all possible thanks to the media) It could drag out the process for another 9-12 months but it would be soooo much cheaper for GM than putting Saab in the trashbin.
http://www.aftonbladet.se/bil/collin/article6188962.ab
Pekko + 1 too.
http://www.svd.se/naringsliv/nyheter/artikel_3849739.svd
Only in swedish, please googletrans.
And finally another kick towards the entrepreneurs wannabes: Koenigsegg Group claimed they were gonna be long term owners. They lastet 6 months and all they did was waste Saabs precious time.
Merbanco want's to buy Saab!
This is in a Swedish daily today:
http://www.expressen.se/Nyheter/1.1792997/uppgifter-i-natt-nu-vill-bank-kopa-saab
Please googletrans and read for yourself!
It aint ove til its ove...
According to Aftonbladet. BAIC now want's to buy the whole of Saab, and Merbanco is also on to it:
Please googletrans
http://www.aftonbladet.se/bil/collin/article6188962.ab
I try to stay optimistic.