Diesel car sales evolution in Sweden and its consequences

During the last few days BILSweden has made public 2 statistics that may not seem related to each other, but in fact they are linked to another.

The first has the title:
Sex av tio nya bilar är dieslar i Västra Götalands län
(Six out of ten new cars are diesles in the Västra Götalands region)

It talks about how the sales of diesel cars have increased over the last years.

Diesel and E85 car sales increased from 2006 till 2008 while petrol(Bensin) sales decreased accordingly. But from 2008 diesel cars became more interesting (maybe because oil prices reached it’s maximum of about 140$ per barrel that year).

Since then diesel sales dominate the field reaching the current 60% value, not only in that region but in the whole country.

The increase of diesel sales helped Sweden reduce its CO2 emissions from new cars.

– The sharp increase in diesel share, not least of diesels with emissions of 120 grams per km, has been a major contributing factor to the average carbon dioxide emissions from new cars has fallen by 20 percent during the past four years, “said Bertil Molden president of CAR Sweden.

But today a new statistic has been published.

Koldioxidutsläppen från nya bilar lägre än vad de officiella värdena visar
(Carbon dioxide emissions from new cars are lower than the official values ​​show)

[table id=22 /]

As we can see the official values decrease, while the “fair” values, which take into account the difference between fossil fuels and renewable fuels, reached a minimum in 2009.

The official method does not take into account whether the fuels are fossil or renewable. For example, counts as ethanol gasoline and bio-gas as natural gas, which overstates the actual emissions. The official value of new cars carbon dioxide emissions, which Transport Agency has reported to the European Commission, declined from 164 grams / km during 2009-151 g / km in 2010, which is a record decrease for one year. The fair value, taking into account the lower emissions from biofuels was under BIL Sweden calculations on largely unchanged, in 2010, 134 g / km. The reason that the fair value did not decline was a decline in the proportion of newly registered passenger cars of ethanol, due to uncertainty about the benefit of these cars after 1 January 2012.

I hope diesel gets a little bit more expensive during this year, maybe then people will start reconsidering E85 once again, and the Swedish politicians will leave E85 cars as “green cars” for another couple of years.

/RedJ

Saabsideways
Guest
Saabsideways
5 years 5 months ago

Any chance of telling us if Saab is still alive ?

Red J
Guest
5 years 5 months ago

Saab is sleeping,
it is already quite late in Sweden.
Tomorrow after the breakfast, and a big cup of coffee, we will know if Saab was even wounded.

/RedJ

74stingray
Guest
74stingray
5 years 5 months ago

*LIKE

Talladegan
Guest
Talladegan
5 years 5 months ago
A short article from PA during the evening which basically says very little… “Swedish suppliers say Saab neglecting payments STOCKHOLM A Swedish trade association says car maker Saab Automobile has failed to pay several suppliers. FKG association CEO Svenake Berglie says at least five car part suppliers have not received payments from Saab since Friday that could “easily add up to millions” of Swedish kronor (hundreds of thousands of dollars). Saab spokesman Thomas Schulz said he did not know about the claims and dismissed rumors that production at Saab’s main plant was halted Tuesday. A metal workers union, however, said… Read more »
Talladegan
Guest
Talladegan
5 years 5 months ago

Correction: AP not PA, my error.

74stingray
Guest
74stingray
5 years 5 months ago

Sorry…. Saab never will die so long as it’s in our hearts and our souls.

mlob2
Guest
mlob2
5 years 5 months ago

RedJ, I’m not sure that I share your enthusiasm for E85. The diversion of agriculture for use in making E85 has significantly driven up the price of staple foods that poorer nations depend on to feed their populaces and recent studies have shown emissions are worse for vehicles using E85 than regular petrol.

Griffinup
Guest
Griffinup
5 years 5 months ago

I agree with you , E85 is not the solution to stop climate warming and reduce co2 emmisons…………,

Edis
Guest
Edis
5 years 5 months ago
The increased fuel prices have little to do with increased use of biofuels, it’s mostly other factors behind that. The emissions from the use of biofuels depends totally on how they are produced and range from higher emissions down to say -80%. However, to replace the 95 TWh of energy used by the transportation sector in Sweden with ethanol would require some 7 million hectares of land, this is more than twice the land availible for agriculture in Sweden, so we can’t all drive around in E85 fueled cars (for EU in general the situation is even worse). Biomass availability… Read more »
Thylmuc
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Thylmuc
5 years 5 months ago

And keep in mind that we will also need to replace coal, not only mineral oil.

RobertP
Guest
RobertP
5 years 5 months ago

So true! Another oil is not the solution. It’s just moving focus to the foodchain. Now we’re driving cars and causing a lot of trouble in the middle eastern. Then we’re driving cars and letting people starf to dead because the fields where in normal ciscumstances food was being produced are now being used to grow fuel for our cars (not mentioning the water/irrigation issues).
I personally don’t like the E85 solution at all, it’s just window dressing.

Ken H
Guest
Ken H
5 years 5 months ago

From that perpective diesel cars are really good. It’s not about replacing gasoline and diesel, it’s about reducing the use of fossil fuels.

Do we really consume less oil by subsidizing diesel cars and thus stimulating more driving…?

Good for the industry, though.

Edis
Guest
Edis
5 years 5 months ago

Diesel cars aren’t susidized. They are however taxed slightly different. Less tax on the fuel, more tax on the car, but the difference between gasoline and diesel is getting smaller.

Ethanol on the other hand is subsidized, it’s tax free.

Ken H
Guest
Ken H
5 years 5 months ago

Call it what you want, but the CO2 based government contributions are very much in favour of diesel cars. Without these, and with a realistic fuel price, the sales of diesel would be less. And we would overall consume less oil based fuels…

WooDz
Guest
WooDz
5 years 5 months ago

There’s more ways to make ethanol than chopping up a cornfield. 20 times more ethanol can be harvested from algae than any food based solution.

rune
Member
5 years 5 months ago
mlob2, in the 90s, the price of grain hit an historic low. Developing nations had problems sustaining their agriculture because industrial countries flooded the market with cheap grain. Food prices rose as a result of oil prices rising. Expensive oil = more expensive production of corn. Ethanol production allows developing countries to import less oil. It is an opportunity for growth, not the opposite. In the 80s/90s, many farmers were subsidized in order to encourage them to stop growing corn. Many fields were put out of usage. I have tried to figure out what happened after that, but haven’t been… Read more »
baas900i
Guest
baas900i
5 years 5 months ago

supplier GM raised prices despite binding contracts and saab refused to pay?

montahue
Guest
montahue
5 years 5 months ago

as noone else cares about the subject given i wont either. Today was out driving in the centre of my smallish town i saw TWO wild 9-5’s within twenty minutes. A white aero one in a hotel parking and minutes later i passed a silver one om my way home. The white Aero at the front hotel parking with about 30 cars in a row was a real presence i tell you. The 5 series beamer station wagon parked next to it looked like a little car that needs to call mummy.

mlob2
Guest
mlob2
5 years 5 months ago

LOL…awesome! I’ve yet to see a 9-5 on the road, but the closest Saab dealer is an hour away, so I don’t expect I would often see a newer model Saab anyways.

montahue
Guest
montahue
5 years 5 months ago

My small town is in the middle of sweden with 50.000 inhabitants. prior to today i seen at the most one 9-5 a month here and that is the reason i was so surprised to see two of them on my short trip to the liquor shop today.

Dan
Guest
5 years 5 months ago

I hope diesel gets a little bit more expensive during this year

While there are many differing opinions over which source of energy will reach ubiquity in the future, none of us should actively hope for such a thing as this.

Ken H
Guest
Ken H
5 years 5 months ago

For the sake of our lungs, we should actually hope so. Diesel is choking our cities.

WooDz
Guest
WooDz
5 years 5 months ago

Next week I have to make a trip to Frankfurt which I can do in 2,5 hours if I put my foot down. At over €1,53 a litre I guess I’ll have to accept a 120km/h limit which will no doubt add another hour to my journey. : (

Dan
Guest
5 years 5 months ago

I am not a fan of fossil fuels – not by a long shot. I jus don’t “wish” greater cost upon consumers, many of whom are already struggling due to the economy, simply to boost some other form of combustable fuel that may be cleaner than diesel but is barely an improvement compared to pure electric.

michaelb
Guest
michaelb
5 years 5 months ago

The statistics just make it plain clear, that even in the homemarket Saab cannot survive without having a competitive range of Diesel engines. The advance of Diesel in Sweden is however particular, it first got at the expense of gasoline and since 2 years at the expense of E85. I am not an expert about it, but is E85 in Sweden not won out of wood chips? No problem / interference with global food shortage.
To develop a strategy for a more powerful Diesel for the 9-5 (and 9-4x)is still a key requirement.

Edis
Guest
Edis
5 years 5 months ago

No, it’s not made from wood chips. A little over half the ethanol is made in Sweden from grain, the rest is imported.

BaRa
Guest
BaRa
5 years 5 months ago
About this part: “Carbon dioxide emissions from new cars are lower than the official values ​​show”. I tend to disagree. I recently switched from a 2005 9-3 SS TiD automatic (150HP) to a 2011 Cabrio TTiD manual tranny (160HP). The convertible is supposed to have a CO2-output of … 137g/km. However, the average consumption figure I’ve gotten out of the ‘vert is 6.5 l/100km, which translates to a CO2-output of 171 g/km. Now I might succeed in pushing it as low as 5.5 l/100km, but there’s not way I will ever get the CO2-output as low as the official 137… Read more »
Patrik B
Guest
Patrik B
5 years 5 months ago

Many car magazines states (I haven’t owned a brand new diesel so I wouldn’t know myself) that the initial consumption on a brand new diesel car is very high compared to the official numbers.

Once you have driven some 5000 km you can expect the consumption to start dropping.

BaRa
Guest
BaRa
5 years 5 months ago

I’m at 12.000km, but the numbers are still way off. The way CO2 output is measured in the automobile industry is not realistic.

Ken H
Guest
Ken H
5 years 5 months ago

The way CO2 output is measured in the automobile industry is not realistic.

Not only is it not realistic, I would say it’s on the border of what is legal. Billions of tax payer’s money is spent on subsidies, based on measurings that bear no relation to reality…

Edis
Guest
Edis
5 years 5 months ago
The fuel consumption and CO2 emissions are measured according to a stanardized cycle using reference fuels. The drag and rolling resistance of the car is measured and the car is then driven on a chassis dyno with simulated loads. This is not something the car manufacturers can change. The average speed and accelerations during this stanardized cycle is quite low so it’s easy to get a higher fuel consumption in real use. Cold starts and use of the fuel powered heater will also have an effect on the fuel consumption not included in the official value. It should however be… Read more »
Barbapappa
Guest
Barbapappa
5 years 5 months ago

These are measured values, or calculated values based on measurements, and as such, they are hard to disagree with. I think that you would be right if everybody would follow your driving and fueling pattern.

MarkoA
Guest
MarkoA
5 years 5 months ago

DPF is one the reasons why new diesels do not get low consumption in real world. Especially if you drive on cold weather and short trips. The engine tries to burn particles more ofter causing higher fuel consumption.

It´s not cars or manufacturers to blame but the ER fuel consumption measurement. It´s not even close to what we consider a normal everyday driving.

Barbapappa
Guest
Barbapappa
5 years 5 months ago
Excellent post as usual RedJ. I love graphs. I share your views on E85. People can argue all day long about how environmentally friendly E85 is, or not is. At the end of the day, the E85 is a much better choice that fossil fuels, because its renewable. Ok, fossil fuels are also renewable but they acquire extremely long process times, and we cant wait that long. It would be nice if you could also include the oil price in the graph. Then we could perhaps see the sensitivity the average buyer has to the momentan value of the oil… Read more »
Marque
Guest
Marque
5 years 5 months ago

Yet no one talks (enough) about diesel’s superior role in maximizing PM10 concentrate in the air and thus causing a deadly environment for humans (and animals), causing possible lung symptoms in the least, but principally lung cancer. Diesel should die, not us, if we had a choice.

bjorn
Guest
bjorn
5 years 5 months ago
There is absolutely no proof that ethanol use in cars causes higher food prices. The hike in food prices is a very complex issue which unfortunately makes the issue being taken as hostage in many debates. I agree with Red, the main thing is that we research into it and find alternatives. The more alternatives the better – let the best man win. Noone knows what the research will bring (although some people think they do). Concerning the CO2 official value and fair value I don’t agree with the long held campaign by BILsweden. The figures they use are built… Read more »
TurboLover
Guest
TurboLover
5 years 5 months ago

Great article RedJ! Well researched, and with an interesting point: Maybe people will go back to E85-cars because they are less expensive to drive? Yeah, why not? I certainly drive my Dame Edna on E85 and would definitely consider NOT to go on the Diesel Band Wagon when I change car.
After all, the Otto is a smoother engine as well…

Dan
Guest
5 years 5 months ago

@Red J – the question of where would we get electric for our electric cars from, I still say nuclear. Japan’s crumbling reactors aside, when nuclear energy is done with upmost care and safety, it is über clean and essentially limitless in power output.

StefanH STHLM
Guest
StefanH STHLM
5 years 5 months ago

Another view on the diesel is the huge costs of replacing the particle filter. Some of the car magazines in sweden have articles on prices in the range of 15-20.000 SEK! = 1500-2000euros = ???? $

Bernard
Guest
Bernard
5 years 5 months ago

The old myth about diesels being cheaper to maintain persists, even though it hasn’t been true for 15 years.

In fact, my mechanic tells me that modern diesels cost significantly more to maintain. Being in North America, his experience is limited mostly to VW diesels (and truck diesels), but it likely holds true for other automotive diesels.

Bravada from GMI
Guest
5 years 5 months ago
Ethanol indeed seems like a bygone fad. Indeed, producing ethanol is not an energy-efficient process, and competes with many other uses of the same feedstock. Moreover, using ethanol in ICEs presents quite a few issues. Diesel is by far overrated. It soots like hell. This comes from a TTiD driver – I chose the car for performance, not frugality. The TTiD indeed has an edge over the LK9 in the performance department. Plus, for whatever reason, Saab priced it favorably here. There is a fuel that has a lot of future though, and that’s natural gas (call it biogas, methane,… Read more »
Dan
Guest
5 years 5 months ago
I don’t know what you mean with über-clean Über-clean as in, does not create anywhere near the mass quantity of atmospheric pollution that all other sources which involve burning anything do. Nuclear waste can quite easily be contained relative to greenhouse gasses. And Uranium is not limitless, it will also come to an end, sooner or later. Sooner or later the Sun will expand into a red giant, so massive it encompasses the Earth and all the other inner planets inside itself, before finally exploding in super nova. Hopefully hundreds of millions of years before that we will have perfected… Read more »
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