The Deal, GM will never accept 100% chinese ownership
November 30, 2011 in Editorial
This is actually Jeff’s article to write so I’m not going to steal his story. What we can tell you is that we have first hand information about the deal. That GM just always said that they would reject the 100% chinese ownership, leaves but on thing, another solution… The deal!
You might have all guessed that we’ve learned about the deal that should be the big save for Saab. It’s no secret that we’ve learned about it from a trusted source, we’ve hinted about it in the comments for a few days now.
We are not allowed to tell you what it’s about… yet… be patient!, but we can tell you that it exist and as Jeff stated in the comments a few days ago it is actually the solution we preferred from the start. The basics of this deal was drawn up a few months ago and is based on the requirements that GM and the NDRC has. Everyone knows that GM would not accept 100% or even 54% chinese ownership so just like Victor said in the media yesterday, there is always a PLAN B!
You might have read in the news and on other Saab blogs that Lofalk right now are performing talks with GM, well I wouldn’t put too much into that. What I find strange and what you might question is why is Lofalk in Washington when the rest of the people are in stockholm? Is Lofalk really in the loop? Is he trying to act on his own again, like he did with the NDRC and the chinese a few weeks ago when he traveled to china without the content or knowledge of the others? We know that GM has not had any talks with the chinese but only communicated directly with SAAB. Lofalk has always been the chinese messenger, I read this as it is the first time GM actually cares enough to sit down with Lofalk, but the question is, who is Lofalk actually talking to? Is it really someone that is important?
You might also have read that there is a new third party, there were speculations here in the comments about SAIC, BAIC etc… If I were you I would don’t put too much into that either. As far as I know that’s just DI speculating again…
The fact that Victor Muller is going to appear on Swedish Television on a talk-show that we reported on yesterday could and should be interpreted as if he is available enough to focus on other matters than Saab, in other words, his work is done…
From what I have heard of this deal and what little I can hint about it is a good one, if it becomes approved and all the pieces fall into place. Its not the big SAVE I might have hoped for from the start but it does do the job if it is approved.
So when will we learn about it? If approved by all authorities and parties… Probably very soon…!
This is all I’m going to say about the matter, I leave the rest to Jeff, he is the one who deserves all the credit for this one!
Cokeisit said on November 30, 2011
Let me guess, GM is still part of “the deal”.
Couldn’t care less of who ends up owning Saab as long as they build my 9-5 SC!
Troels, Denmark said on November 30, 2011
Thanks for the informations!
Hope everybody involved will approve this time!
Sounds really good!
Still sitting cross-fingered and cross-legged…
Michael said on November 30, 2011
+1, waiting cross-fingered too!
I hope that includes funding for future!
aop said on November 30, 2011
Thanks for sharing this TimR !
I suppose that makes nasdaq (and others) reports of this morning about a new proposal to GM in which a Chinese fund will get 60% and YMPD 20% each just usual BS speculations?
I have to say all of them are citing di.se as source.
Fingers crossed and thanks again for the great work you’re all doing here.
kochje said on November 30, 2011
Look forward to this deal and even if it is not the big SAVE; who can at this moment predict any big save?
Just have this plan give Saab the possibilities to prove that it can be profitable by producing the cars and developing new ones.
They just must get the money to start again and to pay the open debts.
Presic said on November 30, 2011
Simplest way would seem that this new company that was setup a month or 2 ago, between SWAN and the Chinese, to hold intellectual property, will make an offer for SWAN shares.
The downside is: more debt laden onto the Chinese.
The upside is: Antonov eliminated & no approval from GM needed.
Everybody start buying SWAM shares now (no I do not hold those shares nor do I have the cash to buy them. it is just a twist in my brain that made me conclude this.
Red J said on November 30, 2011
Presic,
somebody has either the same thoughts as you, or thought your idea is a good one.
In 1,5 h hours the trading volume is higher than the total day trading volume of any day in the past week
And the price is already +50% on the yesterdays price.
TimR said on November 30, 2011
I would not buy shares… I would never trust my money with what the NDRC, GM or any other party might say or approve…
Red J said on November 30, 2011
I’m not saying people should buy shares, as I also wouldn’t do it now, but people are doing it.
BTW, the trading of SWAN stock has been halted since 10:27 because of this “abnormal” trading volume.
TimR said on November 30, 2011
So the market is reacting to the news that DI is posting and everyone is spreading!
Everytime something positive is posted either here or anywhere, the stock market jumps… so far a lot of people have lost a lot of money on that!
TurboLover said on November 30, 2011
Wow, interesting! Red! were can I see the stock price?
Red J said on November 30, 2011
At the link from aop
kochje said on November 30, 2011
I do not see any change in stock price; still at € 0,24.
aop said on November 30, 2011
probably you have not realtime data kochje
http://www.euronext.com/trader/advancedmarket/advancedmarket-2594-EN-NL0009816248.html?selectedMep=2
kochje said on November 30, 2011
Thanks for the link
Patrik B said on November 30, 2011
My friends think that I am more or less insane actually believing that Saab will be alright.
I’m hoping that the I will now something really soon! And I guess that it will be this week considering that the unions are looking for that bancrupty paper they prepared a few weeks back…
M.A. said on November 30, 2011
Mentioning that we will learn of this DEAL ”very soon”, are we talking about weeks, days? Could it be a Christmas present? Or perhaps are we talking about hours?
TimR said on November 30, 2011
The arabs say it in the best way “inshallah”… which basically means “if and when god wants to” =)
dave said on November 30, 2011
I have no idea between the difference between save and big save. A saved Saab for me is more than enough a this point
dave said on November 30, 2011
I have no idea about the difference between save and big save. A saved Saab for me is more than enough a this point.
gijzje said on November 30, 2011
news is already on the web at least in Holland
Red J said on November 30, 2011
gijzje,
read the title of this post.
Everyone is citing DI, and DI is wrong.
gijzje said on November 30, 2011
OK missed that part sorry
DUTCH900C said on November 30, 2011
What i really hope:
“”The Wallenbergs” ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wallenberg_family ) will be back (for a part) as an owner”.
Is that perhaps Plan B?
Hogge said on November 30, 2011
Perhaps.
My personal hope is that it’s Koenigsegg.
900SEB said on November 30, 2011
I count it out. Investor AB sold Scania to VW Group two years ago. They’re too small to support a broken car manufacturer on their own, nor have the knowledge and the contacts.
adams said on November 30, 2011
+1.
50% Investor AB, 50% GM.
Investor AB responsible for business operations. GM responsible for parts supply and worldwide vehicle distribution. Way over simplified scenario but it’s OK to dream, right?
Markac said on November 30, 2011
Are you living 20 years in the past? 50% Investor AB and 50% GM is what existed in the nineties. I think it worked better than 100% GM ownership, but it’s not the way forward. Saab needs GM like it needs a hole in the head. Being tied to using almost exclusively GM parts again, would be dreadful. That is what diluted the brand so much.
adams said on December 1, 2011
If Saab can survive without GM I am all for it. As for living 20 years in the past … yes, I suppose I might be. I’ve only been an ardent fan of the marque for a couple of years and didn’t realize my suggestion was similar to any previous ownership structure. If I’m allowed to amend my dream how about 50% Investor and 50% Saab AB? I can’t help but wish for Swedish ownership!
Markac said on December 1, 2011
I think Saab will eventually have to live without GM and be all the better for it. 50% Investor and 50% Saab AB would be nice, but I don’t that can happen nowadays. The road ahead for Saab isn’t very clear at the moment, but I still believe it will survive. I don’t think it can end up 100% Chinese or 100% Swedish. How about 50% Saab AB and 50% Tata?
adams said on December 1, 2011
Sounds good. Tata has seemingly done a good job with Jaguar. However, I would imagine Saab AB is a pipe dream (even though I suggested it). One would think they might want re-seize control of the Saab name but, in actuality, probably just wish the Saab the car company would go away forever. If Saab AB did become an owner, though, imagine the marketing story that could be told …
Cerulean said on November 30, 2011
Speaking as a UK dealer we need this deal to be announced now. What few customers we were speaking to are now holding off due to the news of Saab GB’s administration. Although this is not terminal yet many people are reading this as if its the end of the manufacturer, not just the importer in temporary difficulties.
Red J said on November 30, 2011
Cerulean,
remember the words from Jeff.
TurboLover said on November 30, 2011
Well, if you are in a deep cave the light will never reach you…
Red J said on November 30, 2011
If you are in a big cave you might use a lamp
BALLARDS SAAB said on November 30, 2011
It has been very hard to sell cars over the last few years this has just made it a whole lot harder .
WE NEED THE NEWS ASAP for us to recover the confidence !!!
michaelb said on November 30, 2011
A few remarks, as you have given some hints actually:
- Basic architecture known since months, preferred by you (whom else?) from the beginning. Apparently the solution targeted was VM’s or someone else’s plan B. Why the hell precious time – several months – in a liquidity crisis was lost then?
– But GL’s role is not clear: He speaks to GM in NA, but not to the right people, but is the only messenger between GM and the Chinese? What an unsustainable situation in such a crisis!
- It is not a big save, but it does the job. I fear you or the stakeholders in this process drawing a deal then underestimate the gravity of the situation by far. Anything but a big save is useless. As others have written here, Saab is close to be clinically dead, it is a virtual company. I can tell you that in my area, big Saab sales terrain, the key dealers are shutting down or switching the brand, going away from Saab forever. Customers are just disgusted with solutions, that provide a few more months of unworthy life. Any solution that is not a big save, will be no save at all. We are talking money here. A business plan relying on xxx thousand sales in 2012 and x tenthousands and 2013 is ridiculous. Dealer shutdowns and customer reluctance will only dwindle if a big save is aimed at.
- Time is critical: If these people think, there is time left till Christmas or the end of the year, they better stop right away. Right here the business planning period for 2012 ends. With no solution in sight than vague promises we have heard about for 7 months, for most remaining dealers there is no other choice than to pull the plug.
- It is good, that VM will be out. Fine, if he contributed to the final solution, and the solution chosen should turn out to be a big save.
Sad, this is reality, nothing else.
Allan B said on November 30, 2011
Got everything crossed now, even my eyes.
Hans H said on November 30, 2011
Ditto!
Nibras said on November 30, 2011
Well,
inshalla SAAB is saved,
inshalla they start selling soon in Bahrain, and inshalla I buy a 95
ivo 71 said on November 30, 2011
Well, if we are talking the same Chinese buyers, YMPD, without the entry of another (new) party onto the scene of this drama then, as far as I can see, the only solution that would satisfy the interests of GM and, at the same time, comply with the position of NDRC would be an acquisition of a minority share by YMPD now and a binding agreement to acquire the remainder at a fixed share price at some point in the future when the importance to GM of the current IP rights would have become moot because the technology concerned would be obsolete by then.
But somewhere deep in my heart I still harbour hopes for a solution that doesn’t involve a 100% takeover by YMPD. A participation, yes, but not exclusively. I know that beggars cannot be choosers but feelings sometimes tend not to follow the ratio… And if there could be a constellation involving Pang Da as a significant minority shareholder (for the Chinese side of sales and -perhaps- assembly for the local market) and some established western car manufacturer as the majority partner then that would be more or less the ideal situation as far as I’m concerned. But as long as China and NDRC remain involved, this can never be more than a pipe dream, I guess.
Perchance to dream…
Ivo
Allan B said on November 30, 2011
That scenario would be better.
Would BMW be interested, perhaps? Clearly they have already shown some interest in at least working with Saab as regards the deals VM has already made. I think that perhaps Saab has the potential to be a complimentary member of the BMW stable. Looking beyond the vast terrain of the ‘executive saloon’ where the 9-3 has been pitted against the 3-series (and, frankly, who hasn’t tried to make a pitch in that marketplace) I think in many ways their brand values are actually quite different, could be radically more different, and they appeal to different consumers. I admire BMW’s engineering and design excellence, am interested in its heritage, but I don’t like the image BMW cultivates and I have no desire to own one. Plus the RWD ones are useless in the snow without winter tyres, unlike a Saab. But a Saab that is part-owned by BMW would sound good – even strangely reassuring – to me. BMW has a better track record than they get credit for when it comes to giving brands a makeover – like Rick Rubin, helping them rediscover what they are good at and where they want to go in future – and then selling them on a few years down the line.
If not BMW, who?
Jeff said on November 30, 2011
I almost wish this article had never been written. I hinted at exactly what Afroditi mentioned in her own article on DI, that a plan B is in the works. This article puts pressure on the parties that is unnecessary at this point. I get that people want good news soon, but the only appropriate action is to wait. Even the crew doesn’t know the full scope of the proposed deal, I’ve only communicated to them that there are talks to form a consortium that GM would approve with a different ownership structure.
Now if everyone could please just hold on a little longer. I get the nerves, and it’s an unfortunate situation. But the only way this gets better is if the people crafting the deal have time and space to do so. The fact that DI is reporting about a wild goose chase in China doesn’t help or hurt the negotiations fortunately.
TurboLover said on November 30, 2011
a consortium!
Great!
duckhead99 said on November 30, 2011
In all the furor and speculation about the Chinese and whatnot, it seems folks have forgotten that one of Saab’s major assets is a freshly revamped (by GM)production facility that’s all set up to build Epsilon cars. With GM now in a stronger position after it’s own reorganization, and it’s products selling relatively well, could this be an avenue for Saab’s survival? A contract assembler building Buicks and such alongside their own products?
Allan B said on November 30, 2011
Good point. The phrase “Reverse ferret!” springs to mind. If in the coming years GM allowed Saab to develop new models from underlying architecture to switchgear that was manifestly and incontrovertibly made from SAAB’s own DNA, so that buyer perceptions can be altered in Saab’s favour, then hell yeah. But that’s unlikely, I suppose.
GML said on November 30, 2011
Plan B….MW?
kanundrum said on November 30, 2011
Wish a Tech Company like Microsoft/Google would step up, it would be interesting to see the outcome of results
Khrisdk said on November 30, 2011
Hmmm I don’t know. Do you remember the story of MS and GM?
http://mistupid.com/jokes/msvgm.htm
Red J said on November 30, 2011
It seems like MS has been working on a car recently, at least now you have to press the Start button to turn the engine off
Marco said on November 30, 2011
I’m waiting… I wish that the solutions is coming so we can get back to talking about cars… I really miss the news about new Saabs…
Markac said on November 30, 2011
I truly hope that this “mystery plan” does not involve GM being part or full owners of Saab again. Wasn’t ten years of gradual stagnation followed by another ten years of virtual death enough? Saab needs to progressively move away from GM, not embrace it again.