Survivor Saab – time to vote someone off the island?

Saab’s court filing mentioned that they are now in a position where they are talking closely with just three bidders out of the initial group of 27 who showed interest in the company.
FIAT are outside this group as they were never one of the original 27. They are trying to include Saab into a deal for all of GM Europe, but Saab’s process carries on regardless, which indicates to me that Saab’s inclusion in a FIAT deal is a remote possibility, at best.
Previous discussions here at TS SU have centered on four other possibilities:

  • The Renco Group
  • Magna International
  • Koenigsegg
  • An unknown Chinese bidder.

With only three parties left, as per Saab’s own court filing, it’s clear that one of these has to go.
This is not a matter of who would you like to see leave the island. That decision’s already been made by Saab’s own tribal council. This post is all about figuring out who’s been voted off.
My theory won’t be a popular one with readers here, but here I go…..
Magna has been voted off the island.
Shock horror! Well, sort of, but not really.
As I’ve mentioned before, I am quite positive that Renco are still in the game at this point. I’d stake my house on it.
The Chinese, although unknown at this point, have been talked about in very strong terms in a few Swedish press articles. They’re currently leading the odds at Ladbrokes, too.
Koenigsegg could be the ones to leave, but I’m not picking them.
I’ve picked Magna as the ones to have left the island because I’m not convinced they were ever on the island to begin with.
In terms of news coverage, Magna is only mentioned as a company looking to get hold of Opel. The only news service to have talked about them in terms of buying Saab is Auto Motor and Sport, and with all due respect to my friends there, I’m not yet convinced their source was correct.
And even if it was correct, would Magna be likely to proceed further in their Saab negotiations when Deutsche Bank know that they’re gunning for Opel as well. It just throws too many optional scenarios into play.
“OK, this is our bid for Saab if we fail at our bid for Opel……and this is our bid for Saab if we’re successful with Opel. One will involve the Russians and one will be just us…….Yeah, I know we’re in hard discussions about moving assembly of the convertible from Graz, but let’s put that aside for a moment……”
I just don’t see this happening, and I haven’t seen Magna say they’re interested in Saab at all.
That’s my 2 cents. You know where you can have yours….

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