Magnus Nordberg is the man on the ground in Trollhattan and he’s been doing excellent work covering the situation with Saab since this whole story began back in February.
He’s just published an editorial at TTELA as a lead in to what might be the eve of Saab’s decision, which will hopefully be made (if not announced) next week.
Here’s a Googletrans of the article.
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Who will Saab choose next week?
The moment of truth is approaching. As early as next week Saab might select the favorite among its three remaining ownership candidates.
TTELA suspects the choice is between an American billionaire, a sports car manufacturer and a Chinese company. And that’s if Fiat can really be discounted.
When Saab went into reorganization on February 20, there were not many who gave the company a good chance to survive. Three months later the situation is much brighter.
27 stakeholders heard about Saab. Since then, these stakeholders have visited Saab, and Saab with Deutsche Bank’s help, have narrowed the to three. Most speculations were about Geely. The privately-owned Chinese company were among the ten candidates who were invited to Trollhättan.
But Geely is, according to data from several sources, no longer in the picture. Another company involved in recent discussion is the Canadian subcontractor Magna. But IF Metall spokesman, Paul Åkerlund has said to TTELA that Magna’s interest all this time was only around Opel – not Saab.
With these two removed from the list, it points to The Renco Group, Koenigsegg and a Chinese manufacturer that remains.
Behind the Renco Group is one of America’s richest people – billionaire Ira Rennert.
Behind the sports car manufacturer Koenigseggs interest is the primary owner, the Norwegian Bård Eker. He has to Norwegian site e24.no said that “it would be a dream to buy Saab.”
We also know from the SAAB-staff that the factory had a visit from a Chinese company, in addition to Geely. But it is unclear who it is.
Do we ignore Fiat? Fiat was simply not included in the sales process Saab runs. By contrast, Fiat has gone to GM and said they want to take over GM Europe.
The latest news is that Saab is not included in the bid Fiat made for Opel on Wednesday. But in the automotive industry anything can happen so to fully deduct Fiat may be premature.
Fiat is the favorite solution among many industry experts. And to some, it could be a long-term stable and good solution, but there are risks that have not be spoken about enough.
Why is everyone so sure that the new Fiat Group would be a success if the boss Sergio Marchionne received through their plans?
To bake together with Chrysler Fiat, Opel and Saab is an extreme challenge, in everything from product planning to the internal fight that teaches about the decision on employment.
If Marchionne could succeed in building a large group, he will be remembered as the genius who understood [unsure of the translation here, but I think “to strike when the iron is hot” makes sense]
But if he fails … yes, there is risk for Saab to be with a weak owner. Fiat’s economy is, from what I understand, really nothing to boast.
In addition to that, Saab would be back as the little brother. In GM they were on the back burner. Would it be the same with Fiat?
And what does it mean for employment in Trollhättan? The tools to the next Saab 9-5 is in Rüsselsheim and would remain there for Saab and Opel ended up in the same nest.
So while Fiat has an upside and a downside.
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Stakeholders:
The Renco Group
U.S. investment company with billionaire Ira Rennert, 74, in the lead role. Has its headquarters in New York and owns companies in several industries. Renco Group is linked to the motor vehicle via AM General, which manufactures military jeep Humvee and Hummer.
For: Would be a very strong capital owners. It is difficult to see that Renco would have short-or long-term plans to move operations from Trollhättan.
Against: Renco Group and Ira Rennert has (or had) a bad environmental reputation through some of their companies. The story also contains a bankruptcy which is considered doubtful.
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Koenigsegg
Sports car manufacturers, since a few years back has series of small scale. Is based in Angelholm. Norwegian Bård Eker is a principal owner in Koenigsegg now also want to take over Saab.
For: marketing dream for Saab brand. A Scandinavian owners that makes sports cars in a former air hangar. It includes almost all the elements that Saab wants to be associated with.
Against: Is this the strong owners Saab need? Manufacturing cars is one thing, the mass production of them is another.
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Chinese manufacturers
TTELA think that a Chinese manufacturer is still in the picture. But it is unclear which.
For: Can open the door to the massive Chinese market.
Against: There are many suspicions against the Chinese owners, as they could move operations east. But the biggest question mark is whether GM is ready to share its technology with the Chinese, and if the state is prepared to provide loan guarantees?
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