Saab have a big week coming up

We’ve stabbed at guesses for big weeks in the past, such as the week when Koenigsegg lost their exclusivity over the bidding process a number of weeks ago. There was an outside chance that someone might slip in and contest the situation, but it was never to be.
This week, there’s no guesswork involved whatsoever. Saab have a deadline and something will happen.
That deadline comes, effectively, on the 19th. If Saab are going to ask for an extension to their reconstruction process, they have to do it before the 20th August.
Everyone’s got their theory on what’s going to happen, and what it might mean. Naturally, I’ve got mine, too.
It’s my belief that Saab will NOT file for an extension to their reconstruction period, and if they do file for an extension, then i’ll start to get worried.
I think Saab will exit reconstruction this week and that it won’t be long thereafter until a deal is signed with the Koenigsegg Group to take ownership of the company. I think they’ll do whatever they can to get this stitched up as soon as possible.
Saab are in a position to exit, primarily because of one thing – the accord they reached with creditors to wipe off 75% of their debts, with a delay of 12 months on payment of the remainder. With that agreement in place and Saab’s business plan and workforce organised, there is no real reason to stay under the protection of the court.
In fact, there is at least one very good reason to get away from it.
It’s my understanding that whilst Saab are in reconstruction, they have to pay their new accounts within six days of the debt being incurred. Saab sales are low and the cars they make today may not accrue income for some time, hence a similar amount of lead time for new accounts payable would be beneficial for their cashflow situation.
Upon entering reconstruction earlier this year, GM endowed Saab with what was calculated to be enough cash to get through until the end of the year. With production at a low 100 units a day, they should be able to manage OK, and the exit from reconstruction should actually help.
If the K-Segg deal is coming to closure by the end of September, as has been stated by Saab to be the plan, then there’s no need to extend the reconstruction period for another three months.
On the other hand, if they do file for an extension, that would tell me that the deal with Koenigsegg Group is not close enough to being done. That would tell me that Saab actually need another three months protection from creditors.
One way or another, something is going to happen this week. Hopefully that something will actually be…..nothing.
i.e. No extension filed. Just a smooth exit from court protection to regular operation, with an announcement on the K-Segg deal imminent.
And a big collective sigh of relief will be breathed by all……

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