Good news about Saab keep coming

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And yet at the same time the SWAN share drops by 18%

While Eric Geers announced at di.se (article from TTela.se) that 205 million Swedish Crowns from the real estate sales are already in a Saab account, and Gunilla Gustavs announced at Reuters (TTela.se) that they have already reached an agreement with many of their subcontractors who refused to supply parts until the payment, the share price of Swedish Automobile NV (SWAN) keeps falling.

I think we should ignore the share price of Swedish Automobile till the production re-starts.

42 thoughts on “Good news about Saab keep coming”

  2. Yap…. I also notice that last week when the government approved the real estate deal the price did not increase at all … then it started falling …. I agree with Red J the market is probably sceptical about the production re-start

        • It’s hard to stay positive if a company manages to have one disaster after an other. Let’s just hope this has been the last one…

          • You forgot about the possible startup of the production line being moved from this week to August 9th? We’ve seen worse but for an investor things like this are disasters. Investing is based on trust, trust in the future. Imagine how much trust has been lost over the past few months…

          • If they can keep the August 9th start date, that will be fantastic. Fingers crossed, that would be my biggest concern…

  3. Having been in the share-price business for quite a long time (now retired), perhaps I might suggest some reasons why the market seems to be increasingly nervous.

    First of all the recent press release listed some conditions for a restart of production. One of those was the acquisition of additional short-term funding. Why? That implies that even after the recent deals there may still not be enough funding in place to keep the salaries paid for a sufficient time to achieve a cash-flow surplus after production start and at the same time to satisfy the demands of the suppliers. This, despite the long back order book.

    Also, reaching agreement with ‘some’ of the suppliers isn’t anywhere near enough. How many – a third, a half? Of course it has to be all of them. There is little point, for example, in making and shipping cars without door handles. Saab has had three months to work on what is required by each of its suppliers and should know that by now. If agreement has not been reached at this point it suggests that a much more fundamental supplier problem other than debts and payments may exist. There may be some critical suppliers, which Saab simply cannot replace in short order, who absolutely refuse to tool up, or gear up, to supply Saab again until long-term institutional funding is in place.

    Efficient markets react to discount what they believe to be the most likely scenario, not just what they are told by press releases. It also does rather suggest that if the Chinese do not get regulatory approval, then Saab’s condition is probably terminal. No wonder the share-price has been falling.

    HTH

    • Good analysis, Jond. I agree with your points. To sum up, Saab needs three things to happen. 1) More short-term funding, 2) Agreement with ALL suppliers, 3) Approval by the Chinese government. Anything less and Saab won’t make it.

    • pretty much spot on i feel
      It was never going to be easy, after the short term funding is secured and production re-starts there is still an absolutely massive job still to do – that is getting people to buy Saabs again, and in a volume that can keep the company running.

      Im sure the markets are very nervous – the next 4-6 weeks will be the make or break – lets hope its the former

      • What Saab needs is some long(er) term financing to ensure the salary debacle doesnt happen again as well as some promotion of the product on offer. I was quote shocked when I saw one 9-5 during the whole three weeks I was in England a few months back. This car is as close to a piece of art I have seen on four wheels yet people just arent aware it exists.

        • I have to agree! I live in England and to date I have only seen two new 95’s on the road. I have a 93X and to date I have only seen three on the road and one of them was mine! Saab has been too low profile with regard to advertising/marketing, even in the GM days . There is a huge chunk of the UK population that knows nothing or almost nothing about Saab. I have had countless people approach me over the past six months or so,asking me what my 93X is. Initially they seem to think it’s a Volvo Cross Country or an Audi All Road, even though the badges say SAAB !!!!! Saab MUST get a grip on their marketing and advertising, people will not even consider buying a Saab if they don’t know what they are, or even that they exist at all. I honestly believe that a lack of marketing/advertising aided the downfall of Saab under GM, so let’s hope they rectify the situation without delay.

  4. Sorry guys – the market is cautious – and right….There are a LOT of unresolved issues that need to be sorted before shareprices rise – not least chinese govt agreement and sign off – then the hard work really begins. Short term cash is needed to get production back and STEADY – you cant have a car company that does not produce cars! – only then will markets accept SAAB is back ! Fingers crossed – but still being realistic …long way to go yet

  5. I didn’t buy @ €1 :-(, but I bought now @ 1.88 😀 it’s not without risk, I agree but the potential is great. I believe in this company as I did in Apple but unfortunately didn’t buy any shares back then. And of course I don’t put all eggs in one basket.

  7. Red, you’re confusing emotions with hard statements. As long as Saab tells the press statements like: ‘Our ambition is to start production on 9 August. There is a date we all are aiming for’, only speculants will but SWAN. Beside that, just having some funds in the pocket, not enough to pay half a year f salaries, doesn’t SWAN a decent fund to invest in. The emotions are positive to some of us Saab addicts and we’re all hoping the 9th the production starts again, but this date still is as hard a July 14th was. If one larger supplier won’t agree on terms, Saab will not start (even a smaller supplier with dedicated parts)
    Beside that, shares should reflect a long-term expectation and this still is not solid at all. As long as Antonov isn’t approved and the Chinese government hasn’t given green light for a joint-venture, investors will not invest in SWAN and this makes this share volatile.

  8. Market is reacting on delay of production and that is normal. Stocks raise during beatifull news in last week but now going slow down untill some good news (start production will pop out). Take in mind that due to crises in Greece and now coming to Italy, Spain and Portugal many stocks will go down even for companies working regular. When (certanly hope it will happens) China deal pass through stock will regain all lost in last year.

  9. today another hammering to the share price, currently 1.65, – 11%, sigh !!! Looking at the past, I guess it can go down to around 1.10

  10. Just a thought: the downward graph next to the “Good news keep coming” headline seems confusing. It is the graph you pay attention to first, so it makes one expect a negative article regardless of its title. Or maybe it is just me. No offence to RedJ!

    • No offence taken!!
      But yes, yesterday was very confusing that the shares were down by 18% although the news on Saab were only positive.

    • Actually, each transaction (buy or sell) is counted. If I would buy shares someone else needs to sell these, so each share is counted twice.

    • Now over 2.0m. This would, of course, be an excellent time to build a strategic stake with a view to a possible bid for the company, providing of course that you believe in the long-term turnaround potential. I’m afraid that the present management could hardly defend its recent record! How much of the this stock is tightly held? This is all rather suspicious, but it may just be speculation ahead of a possible upcoming announcement (which, of course, is also suspicious, but we won’t dwell on that too long.)

  14. It’s not as simple as good news versus bad news; it’s the relative weight/importance of the news floating around that matters mostly: Greece is falling apart; Portugal has just been downgraded by ratings agencies to junk status; Italy (and Spain) might be in trouble soon as well; the US economy isn’t creating any jobs; Democrats and Republicans in the US are on the verge of committing economic suicide… So (and please forgive me for being so blunt) the price of Swedish Automobile NV is falling (as are most other shares), because despite the good news for SAAB things much bigger than SAAB are under the spotight at the moment.

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