On days like these it’s pretty hard to keep your lifestyle healthy. Too many cigarettes, too much coffee…
As we heared now the issue seems to be solved though we most likely won’t hear an official statement from the court before Monday. I’d like to share my thoughts about todays events.
The basics are quite clear: supplier Swepart Tools AB filed for bankrupcy of Saab Tools because their bills have not been paid. This is something you can do if you don’t think there is another way to get your money. As it looks like it worked out for Swepart one might think that others will follow. But I tend to disagree.
Filing for bankrupcy of a debitor is a dangerous thing. You only do it if you think that the company has quite a bit of money so that in an insolvency a huge amout of the debts will be paid. But normally that’s not the case. From my own experience I can tell you that the usual percentage of the debts you get from the administrator is somewhere in between ten and fifteen percent. Given that much of Saabs assets are colateral for the state gurantee/EIB loan it might even be less. Not very attractive. Especially for larger suppliers it’s much better if Saab survives and pays back the whole amount, even if it takes a few weeks longer. On a longer perspective those suppliers would want to sell parts to Saab again. They may demand certain terms of payment. But they want to get their bills paid and future business and they will only get that if Saab starts production again.
Of course suppliers want to be safe. They will ask for payment on delivery. And they want to see a solid plan for mid term financing and a fixed date for the payment of the old debts. We surely can’t blame them for that. As the CEOs of Plastal and Kongsberg said today they will keep negotiating, see what Saab has to offer after the summer break and examine if it is enough to start again. Keep calm and carry on. They don’t supply right now so the debt is not raising so they can wait and see. Not forever but for another two or three weeks.
So let’s keep calm and carry on. And hope that Saab is able to make the suppliers a good offer after the summer holidays.