Another month has come to an end, and the factory is still idle and we don’t know when the production will restart.
But because of the severity of the current situation and because I believe the Saab management wants to do it, I’m quite sure that in September we will hear a re-start date in the first days of October.
What does that mean for the sales figures?
If my assumption is right, August will show the lowest sales figure for 2011 for Saab globally.
In August, the mid-size and small-size markets won’t be selling much but mostly because of the missing cars at the dealers. In September the situation will be almost the same, but during the month of September the bad news will be less frequent, and good news on Saab will start surfacing.
The same argument is valid for Sweden, but I think Sweden will show a stabilization of the figures in September, albeit at a very low level.
But the US and UK will show better figures for the September than for the August, and therefore the global values will for next month will be better than this month.
The UK gets new licence plates in September, which means that many people wait one or two months to buy a car just o get a new plate, and thus the sales in the UK have a peak in September.
In the US the 9-4x will help to have a better September than August. At the end of July, about 300 9-4x where build but not delivered to the dealers. This cars have been slowly arriving to the dealers during August and will continue arriving in September. It means that people will have more chances to find the 9-4x they want at their preferred dealer. In mid August an article from Automotive News said that Saab had sold 17 9-4x in July and 21 in the first half of August, which means that the sales are increasing, slowly but increasing.
But I also think that this tweet from JustSaab today has made me more optimistic.
Today’s agenda: Read no Saab news (good or bad). Focus on delivering new 9-5 Aero, 9-4x, and a 9-3 Sport Sedan. Yes..all 3.
And now my bet:
I think that in August about 700 Saab cars will be sold or registered.