While we are waiting…

After two very turbulent days it is rather quiet on the news front. Most reporting is on the court hearing on monday we posted about last night, just di.se knows a bit more, according to their sources. For some reason I read that with a lot of cautioness…

Saab CEO Victor Muller’s new plan is almost complete, reports the Dagens Industri, which also reveals that Youngman totally committed to invest 10 billion crowns in Saab for five years. Already on Wednesday or Thursday is expected to pay money to enter.

Additionally they say that it’s now up to dicussions about gurantees Youngman needs to get, most likely in preferred shares. Nothing that has not been speculated on before so I’ll leave it up to you how much trust you want to put in it.

An interesting detail is in an article from sverigesradio.se. They claim that Saab will not ask for the replacement of Lofalk.

Saab chief Victor Muller has several times been openly critical of the administrator Guy Lofalk way to do his work. But Saab’s letter to the district court says no to Saab wants to Lofalk be replaced.
Previously, the request for a change have been discussed, but there has never been any formal request to the right

While I don’t think that Lofalk has been the right man for the job it may be good not to ask for a replacement now. Saab should not overdo it as the main goal is to continue reconstruction. Would be good if Saab and Lofalk could get to some kind of professional peace for the coming months to get this plan done. Fighting Lofalk would only cost energy that is needed in other places right now. So if he moves his mind and does his job let him be.

In the meantime we will keep an eye on developments. And try to bring on some saaby entertainment for you to kill the time until monday, when we will have Tim reporting life from the hearing.


49 thoughts on “While we are waiting…”

  1. Interesting to see SU’s change in attitude towards Guy Lofalk. Wasn’t he the bad guy causing all these troubles according to you. And know you almost embrace him. Come on SU your reporting should be open and neutral and not going back and forth like some of the media you critisize.

    • It just does not make sense to start with a new ego who again will have his own views and plans.
      We should count on getting the new plan from VM and Youngman to be executed.

    • I personally think that Lofalk is a threat to and will try to block any deal that will include Swan as owner (so implicitely the latest one).
      I think he has not made a secret out of it either.
      So I don’t think it will be wise to keep him as administrator IF the reconstruction is to continue. He should have been replaced already when he tried to stop the reconstruction only weeks after he was appointed.
      I think if Lofalk will be maintained , this will be the last and possibly lethal mistake of Saab.

      • If we’re in a luck and the money pretty much is on the way already, then I think that it’s give or take to have Lofalk around. I don’t know how much he can do to make things worse, if VM and YM are as agreed about the future as they seem to be 🙂

        • Well, what did he do last time ?
          Go to China NDRC and tell them the EIB will call the loan and the government will pit Saab in bankreuptcy to secure their guarantee.
          The deal still has to go through NDRC and this is already tough as it is to get an approval.

    • “You almost embrace him”

      Wrong reference, noone embraced him nor hit any appreciative tone towards him.
      Absolutely no change here I guess. Till was just indicating that to start a public war here and now could just be not beneficial at the moment. Others, including me, are not that relaxed he will not try his best to do further harm to Saab and the deal if let aboard…
      Alien 1 comes to my mind… but sorry for the flippant reference here!

    • I personally wish they would throw him out but there is no time that Saab can waste on such things. Read my words, then make a comment.

    • I am not even sure they have to do it (request for Lofalk to be replaced). If the court decides that reconstruction can continue, despite Lofalk’s request (which I suppose he will back up with his own arguments), doesn’t this mean that he will be automatically replaced since he no longer believes a solution can be found? In the end, someone cannot work against his personal beliefs.

      • Lofalk’s request was based on the fact that there was no money left. Regardless what we think of the guy’s meddling in ownership negotiations, we have to recognise that he was right to make his submission to end reconstruction, in fact legally obliged to do it based on the facts available.

        Now if the facts change during the time available before the meeting (i.e. money appears in the accounts to cover Saab’s obligations during an extended reconstruction, plus a viable plan is presented, at an advanced stage and with a high likelihood of success) Lofalk is probably prepared to withdraw his request and support an extension based on the new information.

        In his submissions to court he has to strictly follow the law. No money for reconstruction = end. Money available plus a good probability for success = possible extension.

        The money for salaries must be there. And “the plan” must be at an advanced stage plus with a very high probability of passing relevant third parties. If that’s the case I believe Lofalk is happy to get on board.

        • Right, request to stop the reconstruction when no money to pay salaries is legal and he probably didn’t have other options.

          As for the rest of the assumptions you make, time will tell.

          I reckon he would have an interest to withdraw the request if salaries are paid on Friday, so to avoid the crossfire from VM and Rachel Pang during the public hearing.

  2. Good news and when this new plan is a positive argument for the court decision i does not make sense to start with a new administrator.
    Just hope this new plan can soon be executed which would make an administrator superfluous.

  3. As I wrote before, I think Mr. Lofalk did what he had to do.
    Lofalk is not SAAB’s lawyer.
    However, I do hope he’ll be able to contribute to saving SAAB like he did back in 2009/10.

    • For all the bile aimed at GL right now (most correctly, in my opinion), am I remembering correctly that he was hailed by the SU community as the perfect person for the job when he was named? Amazing how fast things change…

      • Well, that was because the first time he did not appear to be meddling in business decisions that put the future of Saab at risk. He was just managing the reconstruction. This time he has exhibited a surprising lack of understanding of what agreements were in place with GM and how that would impact negotiations to strike a new deal.

  4. The report from Dagens Industri (the same paper who’s source said that Saab would file for bankruptcy in Monday, heh) is interesting. They claim that the new deal would mean not only 10 billion SEK from YM into the JV during the next five years, but also a loan of 2-3 billion SEK from the Chinese bank.

    Isn’t “2-3 billion SEK” pretty much exactly what is needed to pay off the EIB loan + debts to creditors?

    • All Victor says about the 2nd payment is that he “hopes the money will come soon” – Wednesday was the initial plan, but for one reason or another that date has changed. I think we’ll know more during or before the hearing on monday.

    • This money has to be in place before Monday. Not a chance that the court would grant an extension if salaries are not covered. There must be cash in the accounts to make payments for at least Nov and Dec salaries, maybe more.

      Promises of money is not enough this time. Saab have to prove they are able to fulfil their obligations during the reconstruction, salaries included.

      Plus a viable plan, including how to overcome all the hurdles from third parties. Preferably an agreement in place that is stronger and further advanced than previous failed MoU’s.

      Hello Rachel, did you hear that?


      In Rachel we trust.

  5. “So if he ‘moves his mind’ and does his job let him be”… Presume that wasn’t an accidental turn of phrase… I’m sure I recognise that tag line from some car company ad campaign…!

  6. “Months” to get the plan done? That seems like a long time to complete the transaction after all that has transpired. The production re-start and other critical business issues (e.g., getting Saab GB out of administration) need to be resolved ASAP.

  7. 10 Billion Swedish Crowns?! That’s roughly 1.5 Billion dollars, right?

    Wow, that is some SERIOUS money. If indeed this is the case, I think Saab will indeed be saved, and properly funded for a solid future!

    • I hope that GM has been contacted and at least informed about the new plan. It may be that SAAB don’t need their approval, but if GM don’t like the new plan, they can make SAAB’s life much harder. E.g. late component deliveries, legal processes on certain important markets (like USA, UK) etc.
      So VM and Rachel please get approval or at least a positive vibe from the “big nasty dragon” first!

      • It boggles the mind that Youngman and VM would proceed without knowing GM’s views on this. They know that they have to live with GM for a long while to come regarding not only components but the 9-4 which in the US will be very important for Saab. I’m quite sure they already have either explicit or implicit approval from GM and, for that matter, the NRDC.

  8. SAAB (YM) has to pay out wages, preferably before this week is over. otherwise there will be problems to convince the court and others.

  9. why can’t they just inject all the money up front, start production and THEN play all those games. :-/
    would be presumably the best deal for all parties, rather than being stuck and threatening us all every now and then….

    • Easy to say, but if you were going to put a large amount of money into a deal, would you not want to be sure all appropriate guarantees were in place? Yes, every investment has some risk, but to risk that much money, I don’t blame Youngman for wanting everything spelled out and legally binding.

        • was just a thought: i am well aware of that business security-stuff. i wasn’t thinking the chinese should just throw their money around. but spending some 50 mio € here and some other 3.4 mio every month, without any outcome and with unknown future, shouldn’t be considered as their dream of a business case.
          from today’s pov, they should have bought prefered shares or anything similar 8 months ago and their revenue could be rated much higher…

    • Something just doesnt add up, its great news that Youngman want to invest such a large amount of cash but what are they actually getting in return? We know that GM arent happy with the Chineese input so are Youngman buying Phoenix? 10B crown sounds alot of money for that does it not? And i totally agree NickX the money should be paid immediately because we all know that Youngman havent been the most reliable party in pressing the ‘send’ button with the money transfers – im just concered that we get some cash and production starts only to be halted again a month down the line because Saab are waiting for more cash? Its worrying

      • “Something just doesn’t add up”
        that sounds just right. if YM want to run SAAB, they should go for it. (and invest). that doesn’t take 6 months. if they don’t, well, then they may want to be first in line to buy the bits and pieces as soon as the worst happens. but that’s not worth 3,4 mio € a month (=my guess).
        i just don’t get it anymore…

  10. If Saab salaries are paid by Monday, it’s really a good time to open a bottle n celebrate. If by Monday there is proof of 10 billions of investments in Saab, a bottle is not enough. This might be the moment where Saabs future is shaped.

    • Apparently he’s going to be replaced with Lars-Henrik Andersson who can look at the new deal with fresh eyes according to an article at ttela.se

  11. As Saabissimo said: no money in the accounts by Monday will mean the process stops. I further believe that the courts will be looking for not just for the Nov, Dec wages, but enough funds for the 3 month extension of the reconstruction, thus 5 months of salaries, and other necessary daily business expenses.

    With respect to Mr Lofalk, his personal beliefs are irrelevant. Its his professional belief that matters, and as the application for ending the reconstruction hasn’t at this moment been rescinded, then I guess he hasn’t, so far, changed his professional mind.

    As for trying to replace him at this stage. Unwise, and unlikely to prevail.

        • I must say I appreciate that version of his professional belief and his professional mind
          I was an agreement between Saab and GL to have him replaced because Saab and GL also agreed that the reconstruction should continue.
          Though not with GL.
          So now GL and Saab will have to show up at the hearing on monday with the agenda to continue reconstruction and reply to the petitions submitted by GL calling for an end to reconstruction and new debts generated + have a new Administrator appointed to take over the reconstruction.

          • If all the parties are in agreement, the courts probably won’t care who is the legal administrator.

            The petition to end reconstruction was..and still is .. valid, due to the salaries, and lack of cash position. That is a black and white decision: either the cash is there, or it isn’t come Monday. Whether they took on new debts or not will probably get cast aside in considering how much money actually arrives by Monday, and whether or not the more long range plan makes sense to the court.

            One question they are bound to ask is “what is GM’s position on the current proposal?”

            They will probably take a less than enthusiastic view if the answer is “don’t know”, “still waiting on a reply” or “still working on that…”

  12. On the subject of Saaby entertainment, have you all read that the 9-3 will finally start att 2012 STCC? I think it´s great news, I know that STCC is a fair bit weaker next year thanks to the TTA-series, but anyway, I´m looking forward to seeing a Saab on the race-tracks again.

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